FOMC Outcome: Thought Experiment
Last evening I challenged my followers and they rose to the occasion, so a deal is a deal. For context, let me back up and say to those who are new to following me. The notion that external news and events affects price is something that continues to be debated.
On one hand, you have those linear thinkers, who see price move immediately after a new release and say price reacted to the news, or the the event. The release of news, the start of the event, is what caused price to react. It's hard to argue with "Hit a Clown...Get a Prize" type of observation (pardon the carnival analogy). Then there are those, like me, who believe that forecasting price is mathematical in nature, and can be predicted far in advance of any news and events. That the news or the event is merely a symptom of the analysis, or an excuse, to move price in the originally forecasted direction.
The analysis I share with you here (in the form of a chart) rarely changes from day to day. My charts are labeled and when I post you end up seeing the same labeled charts each time but with a little more price action. This outcome of the FOMC is no different.
The prices for the whole of risk assets will move in somewhat sync with one another. For the SP500, we should spend the next day consolidating, with an upward bias. I am expecting a sub wave ii of the larger wave 3 to complete the area of my target box. I believe the FOMC will be the excuse to push price in my originally forecasted area. Therefore, upon hearing the FOMC announcement I believe by week's end the market will be in wave iii of 3 (which the strongest portion of the decline). I believe the conclusion of wave 3 we will be at new lows.
So, thanks FOMC for getting things going.
Best to all,
Chris
On one hand, you have those linear thinkers, who see price move immediately after a new release and say price reacted to the news, or the the event. The release of news, the start of the event, is what caused price to react. It's hard to argue with "Hit a Clown...Get a Prize" type of observation (pardon the carnival analogy). Then there are those, like me, who believe that forecasting price is mathematical in nature, and can be predicted far in advance of any news and events. That the news or the event is merely a symptom of the analysis, or an excuse, to move price in the originally forecasted direction.
The analysis I share with you here (in the form of a chart) rarely changes from day to day. My charts are labeled and when I post you end up seeing the same labeled charts each time but with a little more price action. This outcome of the FOMC is no different.
The prices for the whole of risk assets will move in somewhat sync with one another. For the SP500, we should spend the next day consolidating, with an upward bias. I am expecting a sub wave ii of the larger wave 3 to complete the area of my target box. I believe the FOMC will be the excuse to push price in my originally forecasted area. Therefore, upon hearing the FOMC announcement I believe by week's end the market will be in wave iii of 3 (which the strongest portion of the decline). I believe the conclusion of wave 3 we will be at new lows.
So, thanks FOMC for getting things going.
Best to all,
Chris
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