Evening Update: SPX Topping in "A" or IV you want to be long?

11 авг. 2022 г.

To me it's nuts to be on the long side at this levels. I understand, we declined from 4800 to 3600 and now we're only at 4200. I get it.

How would you like it if we were at 3200?

So, right now we're topping or have topped. I say that because Topping (unlike bottoming) is a process versus an event (like bottoming). Topping is a function (especially in an index) of a battle of bulls and bears, each with their own trade thesis. Each believes in it strongly. Each, will not go away without a fight.

As an Elliottition, I am an arbitrator. Who wins, matters not to me. Forecasting a trade set up is what I care about, so I'm a garbage man. In normal times.

But these aren't normal times. In this particular case...I can decidedly say...We're topping now. Excuse me, EVERYTHING IS TOPPING AT ONCE. I can not decide what to short. ES futures...I pray you give me a meager retrace so I may put my stamp upon you. My Brand. I was here!

I have been saving articles articles to share with my followers written by some of the Wall Street Bank's best and brightest....

"The Market bottomed", "Dr. Doom has died his 10th Death", and my favorite "Did the Bear Market Just End?"

RUBBISH.

No, the Bear Market didn't just end, and why can't traders learn from history? I don't why traders have no historical perspective but I can say this one thing definitively....I'm glad they don't. If everyone was a genius than genius would be undervalued.

Good luck with that whole has the bear market ended thing.

LOB,

Chris