ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups Tue (Oct 21)

Market Update for Traders:

Context:
Currently, the price is approaching a key supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795. While we have seen a series of higher highs on the 1-hour chart, the momentum appears to be flattening. Below this supply level, we have identified some significant areas to monitor. The first clean value area on the 1-hour chart is around 6,701 to 6,705, with a visible pullback shelf located between 6,685 and 6,690. There's also a stronger demand zone in the 6,655 to 6,665 range. If we manage to break above the supply cap at 6,795, the next measured extension target is around 6,840, but this should be treated as a stretch unless we see solid acceptance above 6,795.

Key Zones to Watch:

Resistance:
- 6,765–6,795 (this is the current cap)
- Extension potential at 6,840, provided we see firm acceptance above 6,795.

Support:
- Look for the first decision point around 6,725–6,735, which reflects overnight strength.
- 6,701–6,705 is a key equilibrium area.
- The shelf for the first buyable dip lies at 6,685–6,690.
- Further support is found in the demand pocket at 6,655–6,665.
- If we encounter a deeper risk-off scenario, watch for extensions down to 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520, but only if we see a decisive failure in the rebound.

Setups:

Setup 1 — Rejection Short at 6,765–6,795 (A++)
Entry: 6,788–6,793 after a 5m re-close back below 6,795 and a 1m lower-high
Stop (SL): 6,804.50 (above rejection wick/upper edge)
TP1: 6,729–6,733
TP2: 6,701–6,705
TP3: 6,686–6,690

Setup 2 — Acceptance Long above 6,795 (A++)
Entry: 6,796–6,799 on first pullback that holds after decisive 15m acceptance over 6,795
Stop (SL): 6,785.00 (back inside the band)
TP1: 6,822–6,828
TP2: 6,840 stretch
TP3: 6,852–6,855 if squeeze persists

Setup 3 — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6,701 (A+ Bounce)
Entry: 6,702–6,705 only if 6,701 briefly slips and then a 5m candle re-closes back above it
Stop (SL): 6,694.50
TP1: 6,729–6,733
TP2: 6,765–6,775
TP3: 6,788–6,793

Setup 4 — Shelf Long at 6,685–6,690 (A Bounce)
Entry: 6,686–6,689 with a 1m higher-low and 5m hold
Stop (SL): 6,678.00
TP1: 6,701–6,705
TP2: 6,729–6,733
TP3: 6,765–6,775

Setup 5 — Demand-Pocket Long at 6,655–6,665 (A Bounce)
Entry: 6,657–6,663 on stabilization and 1m higher-low
Stop (SL): 6,647.00
TP1: 6,686–6,690
TP2: 6,701–6,705
TP3: 6,729–6,733

Setup 6 — Breakdown Short if 6,701 Turns to Resistance (A+)
Entry: 6,698–6,701 after a 5m close below 6,701 and a retest that fails
Stop (SL): 6,707.50
TP1: 6,686–6,690
TP2: 6,665–6,660
TP3: 6,604–6,564 only if momentum stays risk-off

Management (apply to all)
take the setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the stated SL. At TP1 close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner attempts TP2→TP3 if structure supports it. Time-stop 45–60 minutes if neither TP1 nor SL is hit. Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 ET and NY PM 13:30–16:00 ET.