SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023

30 янв. 2023 г.

SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023



Based on the data from VIX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 19.76%, down from 20.21% last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.74% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 4188
BOT: 3965
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
82% with the last 20 years of data
71% with data since 2022

However, if we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VIX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
84% according to the last 20 years of data
79% according to the data since 2022
Overall we can see an increase in the probability chance, and at the same time more accurate with the current events.
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan


From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
80% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low

At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend


Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
2.85% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.47% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario