Weekend Update: ES Poised to Tag 3830

18 дек. 2022 г.

Friday saw the futures contract continue to come down from the CPI spike to 4180 with a close at 3872. That turns out to be a loss of 7.5% in 2 trading days. My primary analysis is we’re in a corrective decline that will take on a 3-wave shape...this decline only being the “a” wave. It’s my primary expectation that price will bottom in this “a” wave possibly as close as the 3830 region. This is the ideal location for a bottom without extensions (purple count on the micro chart below).

However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area. Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0. That is the ideal pathway for the (a of c of B).

Rogue Red Count Pathway (Less of a probability)

Best to all,

Chris