Full Game Plan for Monday Nov 25th

24 нояб.

Plan for Monday’s Session

Supports:

• Major: 5972, 5945, 5933, 5908, 5899, 5884-5882, 5869, 5855, 5845, 5828, 5818, 5802, 5782, 5760, 5752, 5731, 5709-11, 5691, 5683.
• Minor: 5980, 5967, 5961, 5957, 5948, 5944, 5928, 5922, 5914, 5904, 5893, 5878, 5865, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5812, 5806, 5793, 5777, 5740, 5721, 5702, 5695.

Resistances:

• Major: 5988, 6002, 6017, 6027, 6032, 6050, 6070, 6082, 6093, 6111-13, 6132, 6138, 6172, 6189.
• Minor: 5993, 5998, 6009, 6023, 6038, 6046, 6056, 6062, 6075, 6101, 6117, 6146, 6156, 6165, 6178.

**Context and Strategy:**

ES is coming off a strong Friday close at 5988, right at a key resistance zone. Price action remains in a clear uptrend, but with no major pullbacks or basing structure formed, actionable setups for Monday will require patience. Those who have been here should know what I'm going to say. My absolute least favorite time to trade is days after trend leg. My job is to get in before these big moves. After they play out, my job is done, and I just need to sit and wait for the next setup to appear. This requires one of two things 1) A sharp pullback or 2) Structure (basing to form). If we just keep trending up, there is nothing for me other than holding my runners and letting them do the work. Patients will be verified on Monday.

**Key Levels for Monday:**
1. First Support at 5972: A dip and recovery here could provide a solid base for continuation higher.
2. Major Support at 5945: If 5972 fails, 5945 becomes the next key level. This area has been well-tested and could provide a reaction or bounce, but the cleanest trade would come from a failed breakdown here.
3. Resistance at 6002: A breakout above this level opens the door for higher targets, including 6017 and 6027.

**Bull Case for Monday:**

• Hold Above 5972: Bulls maintain control as long as price holds 5972. A flag or consolidation at this level would create a strong base for a push higher.
• Breakout Through 6002: Reclaiming 6002 and holding above it could fuel momentum toward 6017 and 6027.
• Structure Above 5988: Building a base above 5988 and below 6002 creates a launchpad for further upside.

**Bear Case for Monday:**

• Breakdown Below 5972: A failure at 5972 would likely lead to a test of 5945. I’d need to see a good bounce attempt here and/or failed breakdown (something like test 5967 then recover 72). After this, I’d short below wherever the lows are (probably something like 5964).
• Failed Breakdown at 5945: As always, breakdown trades carry higher risk. Same drill at a 5972 short...A dip below 5945 that recovers quickly could signal a trap for shorts. Wait for confirmation (e.g., a bounce that pays out buyers and then a loss of the lows) before entering.
• Exhaustion at Resistance: Bears can also look for sell reactions at key resistances (6002, 6017) to test lower supports. I never short resistances. Win rate is too low for my liking

**Summary for Monday:**

• Bullish Lean: As long as 5972 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Watch for opportunities to break out above 6002, targeting 6017 and 6027.
• Bearish Lean: Bears need to break below 5972 or 5945 to regain control and push the market lower toward 5933 and 5908. Failed breakdown setups, however, remain the safer option for entering long positions.

Reminder:

Patience is critical. It’s safer to wait for failed breakdown setups than longing after direct tests, especially at key supports, and confirm with volume before entering long positions if you want to be super precise. Avoid chasing momentum and let the market come to you.