A bit of a long post today to discuss the recent dip and where we may be heading. Analysis is on the H1 chart so refer to {1/01} for a D1 overview and {1/20} for a recent H4.
Reversal began off an H1 close* just under 3200 (3197) which triggered MACD convergence from H1 -> H4 -> D1. This close was also under the piercing point of the prior H4 green, possibly creating additional momentum off a bearish piercing. Although the corresponding H4 candle shows an open (or prior close) around 3215, a look at H1 (20:00) indicates that this occurred within the first hour, and therefore would not have been caught until the subsequent H4. Following the reversal was a drop straight to 3k with little to no support, leading to further correction down to 2750 {1/10}.
This breakout likely signifies the beginning of a bearish cycle as it seems we've officially deterred from long-term trend {Daily Chart}; I expect major supports at 2750-2650, 2300 and 2000-1900 {1/01}. Depending on the cycle length we may even 'halve' and hit 1500-1350. Short-term it's possible that we rally back up to 2900-2950, however the recent dip (and test) now makes this a heavy resistance zone.
My plan was to sell the other half of my $ETH once we closed below the highlighted zone. Based on high volatility I decided to go with the H1 chart to make this decision and ended up selling just under 2900. By noting the H1 close of 2900 @ 01:00 I decided to wait out the next candle to look for recovery. Price rose to 2950 but was quickly rejected; however close remained above 2900. Continued momentum within the candle @ 03:00 indicated a high chance of further correction which caused me to place a sell order. If I went with the H4 chart my order would have been closer to 2800.
*reversal momentum began off the rejection at 3250 but can only be recognized in periods M15 and below
Reversal began off an H1 close* just under 3200 (3197) which triggered MACD convergence from H1 -> H4 -> D1. This close was also under the piercing point of the prior H4 green, possibly creating additional momentum off a bearish piercing. Although the corresponding H4 candle shows an open (or prior close) around 3215, a look at H1 (20:00) indicates that this occurred within the first hour, and therefore would not have been caught until the subsequent H4. Following the reversal was a drop straight to 3k with little to no support, leading to further correction down to 2750 {1/10}.
This breakout likely signifies the beginning of a bearish cycle as it seems we've officially deterred from long-term trend {Daily Chart}; I expect major supports at 2750-2650, 2300 and 2000-1900 {1/01}. Depending on the cycle length we may even 'halve' and hit 1500-1350. Short-term it's possible that we rally back up to 2900-2950, however the recent dip (and test) now makes this a heavy resistance zone.
My plan was to sell the other half of my $ETH once we closed below the highlighted zone. Based on high volatility I decided to go with the H1 chart to make this decision and ended up selling just under 2900. By noting the H1 close of 2900 @ 01:00 I decided to wait out the next candle to look for recovery. Price rose to 2950 but was quickly rejected; however close remained above 2900. Continued momentum within the candle @ 03:00 indicated a high chance of further correction which caused me to place a sell order. If I went with the H4 chart my order would have been closer to 2800.
*reversal momentum began off the rejection at 3250 but can only be recognized in periods M15 and below
