TiiE swaps pricing 20% chance of july hike. inflation above 3% tgt, peso weakness further inducing inflationary pressure. latam CBs maintaining a hawkish bias (Brazil, Colombia, Peru), Mexico to follow. Spec positioning net short peso (emfx funding ccy).
Note: Hedge out EM weakness risk with tactical THB+NZD shorts.
Note: Hedge out EM weakness risk with tactical THB+NZD shorts.