Eur/Usd : Where will the uptrend resume

13 авг. 2015 г.

I believe it is important to see that the trend has turned up. Price has put in higher lows and higher highs since July 20th and has broken a trend line which held the entire month of July. As for an Elliott Wave count, price is in the early stages of wave Y. Price has most likely finished a first wave inside this wave Y and is now looking for a corrective wave to follow this first wave. There are a couple of possibilities :

(1) A small double three corrective wave takes price to retest the July trend line and continues the trend higher ( target : around 1.10 / August 20th )
(2) A bigger double three, same as previous but with another leg lower ( target : around 1.09 / early September )
(3) A triangle wave, this is tricky as triangles are easiest to spot but have the most chance to transform into another triangle or other corrective wave ( target : 1.11 / end of August = range for the rest of the month )
(4) Corrective wave is already finished, this means a very small corrective wave in price and time, sometimes happens but very unlikely.

There are many possible counts, so it might be best to concentrate on the bigger picture and let the waves roll out a little so we can analyse them at a later point where things will be clearer.