The EU move on Thurs/Fri seems like yet more of the same as we've seen over the last month. News pushes price up hard and fast before the weekend only for it to fall to new lows the Sun/Mon after. Here's why I think this time will be different.
1) This up move has gone FAR beyond the usual 1.618 extensions the previous moves were limited to hitting. If it ends here, it falls just short of the 2.382 extension of purple A wave.
2) We've broken the most recent TL that constrained price below it the last two times this happened.
So while there is a chance this is the end of the C/(X) wave, I feel there's more evidence to support further upside.
If we have bottomed out in the near term at 1.2743, that would complete an A leg down. Our B leg would consist of a 3 wave pattern of 5-3-5 or 3-3-5. So to the three possibilities, in rank of my bias from least likely to most:
RED - We've hit the limit of the upside for now, forming C/(X). We'll be hitting fresh lows soon.
BLUE - (Y) was our bottom (for now) and represents the end of the down move from Feb as an A wave. We're in a 5 wave sequence up, after a brief pullback we should move into either wave 5 or an extended wave 3.
GREEN - (Y) was our bottom (for now) and represents the end of the down move from Feb as an A wave. This up move is the first ABC sequence up. Another ABC sequence for a pullback down to 2860ish before a 5 wave sequence up completes the B wave. Targets for the end of B would be 3225 or 3340, representing the .5 and .618 retraces of the Feb high to present low. As you can see, they line up very well with fib extensions for a C wave extending from that reversal point which lines up with a retest of a previous TL.
1) This up move has gone FAR beyond the usual 1.618 extensions the previous moves were limited to hitting. If it ends here, it falls just short of the 2.382 extension of purple A wave.
2) We've broken the most recent TL that constrained price below it the last two times this happened.
So while there is a chance this is the end of the C/(X) wave, I feel there's more evidence to support further upside.
If we have bottomed out in the near term at 1.2743, that would complete an A leg down. Our B leg would consist of a 3 wave pattern of 5-3-5 or 3-3-5. So to the three possibilities, in rank of my bias from least likely to most:
RED - We've hit the limit of the upside for now, forming C/(X). We'll be hitting fresh lows soon.
BLUE - (Y) was our bottom (for now) and represents the end of the down move from Feb as an A wave. We're in a 5 wave sequence up, after a brief pullback we should move into either wave 5 or an extended wave 3.
GREEN - (Y) was our bottom (for now) and represents the end of the down move from Feb as an A wave. This up move is the first ABC sequence up. Another ABC sequence for a pullback down to 2860ish before a 5 wave sequence up completes the B wave. Targets for the end of B would be 3225 or 3340, representing the .5 and .618 retraces of the Feb high to present low. As you can see, they line up very well with fib extensions for a C wave extending from that reversal point which lines up with a retest of a previous TL.