EURUSD Outlook 2/5

Bearish on EU. I want to see it trade it 2023 open. Lets see how it goes.

Комментарий:

stayed off the charts today as I didnt expect much from the market after friday NFP, after mondays trading my outlook has changed slightly. still bearish, but looking for longs tomorrow. News might be a driver.

Комментарий:

looking for reasons to buy this thing

Комментарий:

bought off a shift on 1min, however this is somewhat risky as ideally I would have a 5 min OB, but we are in deep discount in a low news week, and have traded below the open of the year.

Looking to take this to the weekly open.

Комментарий:

not showing the strength i was hoping to see at the moment. NYSE in 15.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена:

done for the day.

Комментарий:

last attempt with reduced risk.

Комментарий:

Sl to BE

Комментарий:

theoretical position was added, have exceeded my risk for the day and so did not want to take on more, but position would have held.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

didnt realize powell was speaking today. deleting second TP. one TP at the 12AM open for this one.

Комментарий:

Thanks Powell.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена:

bagged and tagged. Done for the day. (forreal this time)

Комментарий:

it looks likely that my original target of the weekly open will be met. glad with the analysis on this today, a little impatient with the execution, but was still able to take advantage of what was offered.

Комментарий:

or maybe not. no skin off my back either way.

Комментарий:

demo trading this afternoon session long. I still want the weekly open price.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

entered here

Комментарий:

Trade management approach.

Комментарий:

going break even early as the day comes to a close, realistically no reason for price to return IF the idea is correct.

Комментарий:

giving the 30min FVG some room to be great.

Комментарий:

30min FVG has had its say, hopefully no funny business from here on out. Looks like an asia/london completion.

Комментарий:

holding overnight.

Комментарий:

TP 1 almost tagged during london price has retraced significantly, SL still at BE. I did not see anywhere logical to move it to, but having so much profit disappear never feels great.

I still believe this will complete bullish target. once NY session gets going.

Комментарий:

small position added for NY session

Комментарий:

IF my analysis is still correct, we should see pretty quick expansion once price begins trading above the 12AM open.

Комментарий:

Encouraging price action. SL to BE for second position.

Комментарий:

would have bough here if i wasnt already loaded up

Комментарий:

had to give NY position back some risk

Комментарий:

hm had expected that to hold tbh. Re-evaluating.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена:

SL Break even on the first position. Taking a break from the charts for the rest of the day, yall be easy!

Комментарий:

back in a long. I really dont think im wrong here.

if i take a second loss ill go lick my wounds for real.

Комментарий:

finally. Hallelujah, Alhamdulillah, etc etc.

Комментарий:

had to give it room. shitty price action today so far.

Комментарий:

Feel like I've been baited by the market today, will be taking a break to re-align psychologically and will return when I feel I am centered. that may be later this week or next week.

I will continue to update this trade however.

Комментарий:

SL back to break even. Just letting it play however it will.

Not executing any more.

Комментарий:

trade stopped out break even

Комментарий:

lol this is why i try to separate analysis from trading.

Because you know where price wants to go does not mean you will be given an opportunity to participate that is in line with your approach.

Looking for shorts from these levels as I am ultimately bearish.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

Here's what I need to see to justify a short. 1min chart.

Комментарий:

went short but price did not deliver as I expected as the highs remained in tact. BMS on the downside but not my preferred method of entry as it is more risky. However HTF is bearish in my opinion and price has retraded to a volume imbalance level. lets see how it plays.

Комментарий:

if this is the move im looking for, there is no reason to take profit until we are back at the 2023 low. Might change my mind and be more conservative. but for now yea these are the targets.

Комментарий:

encouraging.

Комментарий:

looks to be holding. SL at BE.

Комментарий:

the fact that no trading has occured below the daily open is a form of sellside inefficiency and imbalance price movement, that supports the idea that price will want to trade down there to rebalance and gives confidence to hold onto trade.

Комментарий:

the opportunity to add to the position MAY present here at the breaker x 1hr FVG.

Комментарий:

the algorithm is programmed to bait you into making bad decisions. Know what your criteria for entry is, and stick to it. If the market does not give that opportunity, then plan for the next.

Комментарий:

looks like the market didnt need much besides the 30min FVG. Will decide if there is still opportunity to add to position or not.

Комментарий:

Comfortable adding here after further breakdown with the understanding this is a riskier entry as there are imbalances above on the 1hr that have not been met.

Комментарий:

trade management structure currently.

Комментарий:

dont take the bait.

Комментарий:

If you have been following this trade (you really shouldn't treat a strangers opinions as a signal service) close the trade and take full profit here.

Комментарий:

When in an active trade, the question on your mind should always be, is the probability of further profit worth the risk of the loss of current profit. This will save you from regretting your decisions as you would have recognized and accepted this risk ahead of time.

The answer to this is personal and will vary from trader to trader and from trade to trade based on things like: profit goals, penchant for risk, current daily/weekly/monthly performance etc etc.

Комментарий:

I may not get my desired entry to add and thats okay. will leave orders for a little longer then delete.

Комментарий:

I decided to add a small position off the 3min OB. I am fairly confident in my HTF analysis but would have liked to have had an opportunity to add further into premium prices.

This represents a risk that I have decided I am comfortable with. I have moved my SL from original position further into profit to minimize overall exposure.

Комментарий:

2hr FVG is a risk to the added positions as it is right above stoploss level.

Комментарий:

risk reduced on added position. honestly I would want to see the expansion happen today as there would be less risk of significant retracement, but this might be an overnight hold.

Комментарий:

THEORETICAL additional position for if i was REALLY trying to push my edge.

Комментарий:

going break even on additional position early. theoretical add looks like it would have held as well. deleting theoretical from chart after this update to clean up chart.

Комментарий:

expecting additional position to be stopped out at break even unless there is significant expansion before the day closes.

Комментарий:

Moving SL back to original level for add to survive intraday spread increase.

Комментарий:

back to reducing risk on add.

Комментарий:

Being in tune with the market always feels good, but this is around where i feel my confidence slipping into hubris. into next week ill try to take my foot of the gas a bit, reduce my risk and engage less frequently.

Комментарий:

last update. signing off for the night. here is what I would like to see.

Комментарий:

stopped out at break even on second position and closed first position fully at the first TP. the pull of that 2hr FVG proved too attractive for london session.

Pleased with this result regardless.

Комментарий:

Considering a buy.

Комментарий:

Tagged in and risk reduced.

Комментарий:

added to position

Комментарий:

added pos stopped out. dont love the delivery. I think it will ultimately fail.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена:

booo.