EURUSD pares US inflation-induced losses ahead of ECB

14 сент. 2023 г.

EURUSD braces for the first weekly gain in nine as markets await the key European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate announcement. In doing so, the Euro pair extends the previous week’s rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of March-July upside, near 1.0680 by the press time. The corrective bounce also gains support from a looming bull cross on the MACD indicator, as well as the gradually rising RSI (14) line from the oversold territory. It’s worth noting, however, that the 1.0800 appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers as it comprises the six-month-old previous support line, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from late July and the 100-EMA, respectively near 1.0855 and 1.0865, will act as the final defenses of the pair sellers.

On the contrary, the EURUSD pair’s fresh downside could aim for the latest swing low of around 1.0700 before poking the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 1.0680. In a case where the Euro pair remains bearish past 1.0680, May’s bottom of 1.0635 may act as a buffer during the quote’s slump targeting March’s low of 1.0516. It’s worth observing that the yearly low marked in January around 1.0480 could test the pair sellers past 1.0516 before giving them control.

Overall, EURUSD builds upside momentum but the recovery moves need validation from the hawkish ECB signals, especially after the previous day’s US inflation numbers challenged the pair buyers.