The EVZ (Euro Currency Volatility Index) may show a pattern, but it decouples from the exchange rate patterns in wide ranges. $EVZ, contrary to $VIX, doesn't really top where the instrument bottoms
makes this harder to apply.
Bottoms
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/e/est95Idi.png
(a) The first step is initiated by identifying a price peak/top. You look for where the price top is and mark the EVZ. That is where you begin drawing the Fib on the EVZ.
(b) Then, mark where the EVZ reaches a high and begins to fall. You must follow it up because no one knows when it will start falling. So, the fib will adjust to the movement of the EVZ.
(c) When the EVZ falls down and reaches 78% that should be a bottom.
Another Example of Bottoms: s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/u/u3M5bGz2.png
In this example it tried to bottom:
If it keeps falling, then when just start over again, like this:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/z/ZoYkvdet.png
Catching a top is the opposite; however, the price needs to be a price bottom first that you identify. Then, draw the fibs the opposite way:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/s/sADJSsVI.png
Let's keep going:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/l/LBfG8CzU.png
And finally, we get to today, April 21, 2018. The market for EURUSD has closed pm April 20th. Everyone in their boots are wondering if EURUSD has bottomed.
Bank of America is bearish and says, "Bank of America Merril Lynch said vaguely: bearish EURUSD with a 1.15 tgt. Rationale: Strongly believes USD will rally for the rest of 2018. Believe that real money and hedge funds have just started buying USD from a short position; expects it to accelerate as US economic data remains strong (fiscal stimulus) and Euro data weak (creditless recovery)."
However, Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research MAINTAINS ITS STRUCTURAL BULLISH BIAS IN THE MEDIUM-TERM:
"The FX options market speaks to a bullish bias, just as the CFTC and positioning survey data do. The rates market is anticipating a faster pace of (market) rate rise in Europe than the US....."
So, what does the EVZ suggest?
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/h/hvo9YTK2.png
The EVZ fell to 78%, measured on the EVZ initiated from the shallow EURUSD exchange rate's trough at the beginning of 2018 to the top formed by the EVZ. This suggests that the monthly bottom is in the EURUSD exchange rate and that if we are long, we should hold a little longer on the monthly chart; that we should stick with what Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research's bias on top of our on view and keep Bank of America Merril Lynch in the back of our minds going forward.
makes this harder to apply.
Bottoms
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/e/est95Idi.png
(a) The first step is initiated by identifying a price peak/top. You look for where the price top is and mark the EVZ. That is where you begin drawing the Fib on the EVZ.
(b) Then, mark where the EVZ reaches a high and begins to fall. You must follow it up because no one knows when it will start falling. So, the fib will adjust to the movement of the EVZ.
(c) When the EVZ falls down and reaches 78% that should be a bottom.
Another Example of Bottoms: s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/u/u3M5bGz2.png
In this example it tried to bottom:
If it keeps falling, then when just start over again, like this:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/z/ZoYkvdet.png
Catching a top is the opposite; however, the price needs to be a price bottom first that you identify. Then, draw the fibs the opposite way:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/s/sADJSsVI.png
Let's keep going:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/l/LBfG8CzU.png
And finally, we get to today, April 21, 2018. The market for EURUSD has closed pm April 20th. Everyone in their boots are wondering if EURUSD has bottomed.
Bank of America is bearish and says, "Bank of America Merril Lynch said vaguely: bearish EURUSD with a 1.15 tgt. Rationale: Strongly believes USD will rally for the rest of 2018. Believe that real money and hedge funds have just started buying USD from a short position; expects it to accelerate as US economic data remains strong (fiscal stimulus) and Euro data weak (creditless recovery)."
However, Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research MAINTAINS ITS STRUCTURAL BULLISH BIAS IN THE MEDIUM-TERM:
"The FX options market speaks to a bullish bias, just as the CFTC and positioning survey data do. The rates market is anticipating a faster pace of (market) rate rise in Europe than the US....."
So, what does the EVZ suggest?
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/h/hvo9YTK2.png
The EVZ fell to 78%, measured on the EVZ initiated from the shallow EURUSD exchange rate's trough at the beginning of 2018 to the top formed by the EVZ. This suggests that the monthly bottom is in the EURUSD exchange rate and that if we are long, we should hold a little longer on the monthly chart; that we should stick with what Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research's bias on top of our on view and keep Bank of America Merril Lynch in the back of our minds going forward.
Комментарий:
From IvanLabrie, every 3rd Friday when options expire he noticed a pattern:
Комментарий:
Комментарий:
50% of the daily range, of each options expiration date
Capturing the swings of the stock market & currency market. It's a dirty job and equity/currency traders must do it.
