You can see that the EURO has closed above a monthly key level 1.23206, the 50 EMA has crossed over price and is now below price action therefore we expect a strong uptrend as the last time the 50 EMA crossed over similarly on the monthly timeframe was 2002 when it had a bull-run from around 0.97 to an all time high of 1.60, so it looks promising that the 50 EMA is now sitting below price action. The 100 and 200 SMA's are currently still above therefore we might experience some difficulty penetrating these as they will act as strong forms of resistance. The counter trendline is also another confluence that will support my bias as a break of this trendline could cause a movement to around 1.26000 which is the next monthly key level. Clean and simple chart, lets ride this position for a few months and see whether it takes off.