GBPUSD - Log Fibonacci Backtest Review

GBPUSD here,

I didnt trade this one and lost interest once I had covered my shorts in the downward impulsive move and now I'm back to collect the details, so here are a few of those.

So move from ATH has either completed or is near to completion a 3 wave WXY.

The low here was very close to striking the mid range 1.618 fib extension and so it would appear that it perhaps was front ran.

The long range 1.618 did not find a home but perhaps further correction will find that down the road - we'll see.

W-X was a very typical 0.5 fib - nice and simple and more common in the higher time frame moves where there the trend has "weight" and there is not so much impetus for shenanigans. 0.5 is effectively the ball bouncing down the hill. Not bouncing too high or too low - just 0.5 exactly.

From there a 0.618 bounce that drifted price out of the descending channel to then collapse back in forming a shakeout reversal. The 0.618 (and shakeout area typically up to 0.7 in FX) ratio is relevant here at the start of the downtrend because after that X wave this is a move to trick traders into thinking the trend is now up.

Then once the trend got going into probable Y wave to the downside there was a bounce off lower channel followed by a star reversal through 0.382 - the phi number of continuation. That was a big clue that much more downside was to come and provided the last fib pivot.

Easy in hindsight but all of these landmarks did provide fairly simple entries.

ATR is now higher than at ATH so good chance the reversal is coming in this area in tandem with probable WXY completion.

I'll probably be looking at other FX pairs now as GBPUSD will most likely be less impulsive from here.

Not advice.

Комментарий:

Big long wicked hammer forming on monthly - showing probable reversal here.