Gold maintains Selling Technical perspective / #1,722.80 next

Gold's general commentary: With evident debacle on U.S. Fundamental forecasts, Price-action is found dropping as expected ahead of U.S. session opening, almost triggering my #1,722.80 deep Selling order. This Technical setup (Weekly chart’s (#1W) Descending Channel) most likely gives me a hint that Gold is on the verge of new Bearish multi-Month cycle as my estimations are pointing to numbers less than #1,588.80 (March #30, #2020 Low). Gold, with all Bearish signs should be gradually losing with every Daily candle. #2021. is projected to be Bull Year for Bond Yields, and DX should reverse and engage a Buy-off (remember that every Bullish rally DX had was overturned in aggressive Selling potential on Gold) - all those events will practice Selling pressure on Gold. Bond Yields for now lost full correlation with Gold as I expect October to be again Month of traditional Gold - DX correlation. #1,778.80 was crucial Support Hourly 4 basis as chances are really slim for Resistance of #1,800.80 to be tested again (only #12.91%). The Price-action will most likely re-enter the High Volatility belt (#22 March - #11 April and #19 - #27 June). On the Short-term, I may have correction of current losses towards #1,792.80, on a first Hourly 4 Bullish candle next week, I haven’t got a reason to revise my mid-term overview. Gold shows no apparent signs (besides all Bearish pointers) of stopping it’s Bearish direction. If you have followed my signals and read it with understanding you can see that I am heavily on the Selling side (which should be by all Technical indicators), and my view has not changed since the last few sessions. Gold should continue to fall with every Weekly candle, as Buyers intent is not that strong. Weekly chart should be Trading on strong Support levels and if those got invalidated, I will be looking to complete full oscillation towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. It should be no surprise that Gold is Trading around its #1,770’s pivot ahead of the upcoming Fundamental events. Gold is still priced just above the Daily chart’s Support zone and the upside potential seems strongly limited and less possible. In next few sessions I expect Full Bearish domination. Regarding today’s session, I cannot rule out #8 Hour correction towards #1,772.80 Resistance, as DX is near Higher Low configuration and Usd-Jpy correcting last week’s gains. At this point it is essential to either choose a range to Scalp (which I am not big fan of) or take a Medium-term position (what I always strive to do, fully preserving my Selling outlook). I personally remain Bearish under the Daily basis Bearish action of the past several weeks which suggests that Trading will continue to be performed within the #1,750.80 - #1,740.80 range.


Technical analysis: Expected Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no Technical surprise as is representing Fed’s repurchase agreements aftermath (almost all Money supply chart’s on ATH). Despite current configuration and from a Technical standpoint, Daily chart is showing a wide Descending Channel with detectable Lower High’s and Higher High’s, able to convert into a historical Selling sequence. I do not see Bullish Short-term trend (recovery) as sustainable, unless #1,800.80 barrier breaks (slim chances). Long-term, the developments are there to support an strong downtrend. Fundamentally, deflation of DX would be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. The post-crisis environment might not (as is traditionally) be Gold friendly, like the recovery from the financial crisis. With hawkish Fed aftermath and other hedge assets against Inflation, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t pierce the #1,700.80 Selling extension. With Hourly 4 chart now turning merely Neutral, the Spot price (which is always the focus of my analysis) is close to my desired vicinity as mentioned on the #2 previous posts, configuration which is pointing to #1,722.80 variance. This is an Three Drives pattern and if the identical TDP pattern of February #24th - March #11th is replicated, then I can expect a #1 session upswing to Upper levels, followed by a Selling break out below #1,722.80. Don’t set aside that crucial level is Hourly 4 chart’s strong Support on #1,722.80 - it is important to monitor will the Price-action break the Moving average or reject the sequence. The correlation of Gold with DX is very strong (and diagonally correlated). It is important to note that huge Institutional capital are currently operating with heavy Selling orders (Selling every High), as Gold is on steep multi-Month Descending Channel. On Medium and Long-term, I am expecting typical #1,678.80 (Triple Bottom rejection point) and #1,588.80 in succession.


My position: As Gold Sold back #5-session consecutive gains, I have waited Price-action to reach my desired configuration, and Sell the market from distinguished Selling area. I have engaged Selling order with #1,764.80 entry point, Targeting #1,745.80 extension.