Gold's Long-term / #1,678.80 and below

Gold's Long-term trend commentary: The Price-action increased following the absence of Fundamental catalysts, but dropped near #1,780.80 on a Daily chart’s Harami Bearish candle. This has given me a new Selling entry with the #1,740.80 as an obvious Target, if #1,766.80 breaks. It is important to observe the market sentiment in general, if one is interested in Long-term Gold direction. Fed is about to announce #2021 Year taper announcement, which can skyrocket DX and engage strong Bullish rally (check how Price-action of DX behaved in past on such configuration). However, last time Fed delivered such announcement (#2013. Year), DX was skyrocketing. On the other hand, Bond Yields was and will be my main point of interest, and strongest correlation asset regarding Gold market. Traditionally, Gold was benefiting on Low rates and every strong Bullish rally on Gold was followed by Low rates on Yields (remember All Time Low on Bond Yields at #1.09% in #2020 Year, Gold was Trading above #2000 per ounce). However, as Low rates times are most likely gone and matter of the past, I have been announcing strong Bearish cycle on Gold ahead which can test even #1,550.80 barrier within #1 Year’s time.


Technical analysis: The Price-action surged as despite the positive Fundamental announcements, the DX remains Neutral for the session, but appears to be reversing on a Hourly 1 chart Bearish candle (I advised it should rise gradually within #10 sessions). On Daily chart basis, market sentiment appears to have regained the standard correlation but I need to allow enough time (another #2 sessions including today’s one to have a clearer picture). #1,792.80 can still be tested into this week’s variance (if yesterday's PCE report didn't disappoint, since the news relationship appears now to be inverse, possibly positive news raise accelerated rate hike concerns). I rely on the Weekly chart Technicals at hand suggesting that the lower #1,747.80 will be tested. The Price-action is attempting a Double Top, (November #9 resemblance) on Overbought Hourly 1 chart. I expect the multi-week consolidation zone to take control again and reverse the Price around the #1,747.89 as a first Target. Current constant dip Buying on Gold can be also linked to the fact that the Stock markets are on the back foot, causing capital exodus from shares to the safe-haven of Gold. Only catalyst for current week was PCE report which could spike Gold downwards, but it didn't delivered anything worth mentioning on the aftermath.


My position: Besides taking mini Trades with my paid users, there was no major move this week, and most likely next week should be similar, almost the same. Traders can expect idle #5 sessions ahead, and since weekend break is near and I am more than satisfied with my Monthly Profits, I will call it for the session and go on early weekend break.