Sell order activated / #1,800.80 on Sellers aim
Gold's general commentary: Gold reached my projected #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 Resistance zone which is roughly the neckline of current Bearish structure on Hourly 4 chart and got Naturally rejected exactly on the #1,817.80 - #1,827.80 Support zone (Profit taking zone for Short and Medium-term Investors), thus practicing strong durability there and is a reason of weakening Selling Volume). Personally, I do forecast strong consolidation now around the Daily chart’s Resistance zone (hence Oversold RSI approaching critical levels). However, since #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 rejected the Price-action, it Naturally represents Selling signal towards #1,827.80 Support once again which I utilized. Otherwise, the Lower High’s trendline since late December - early January could be invalidated and prevail, pushing the Price-action back towards the #1,862.80 - #1,882.80 Medium-term Resistance zone, if #1,852.80 breaks firstly of course (and market closing above). I don’t believe that current corrective leg is sustainable (further Fed tapering and DX losing with every Hourly 4 chart’s candle, and has to continue towards more gains sooner or later). By my estimations, #1,852.80 is maximum out of current Selling potential, and due Friday’s market closing above the #1,827.80 Support, Intra-day Buying pressure was visible, but not for long. The Price-action however was inside the #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 Resistance range on Hourly 4 chart, on a slightly wider Higher Low’s decimal, a small scaled Bullish gradient was confirmed which may be Technically translated into a Selling opportunity by today’s session.
Fundamental analysis: Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel I mentioned on my remarks is still active on the previous Hourly 1 chart’s candle, however Price-action was headed towards Higher levels, as mentioned, Targeting the #1,852.80 Resistance and strong defensive line Supporting from below, Trading at #1,827.80 (invalidated few sessions ago). As long as #1,827.80 holds as an Support (and market closes above), Gold will Trade under Buying pressure (Buying every Low) before the next Bearish leg, but if #1,827.80 breaks, it should be an aggressive decline and Selling call towards #1,790’s where the Price-action is expected to be in #2-session’s time. To be frank, I am surprised that Gold was extending the consolidation, I expected that to take place after the revelation of the major move on most exchanges. But since the Bond Yields were on a Bearish candles (now on decent recovery / spiral uptrend) and DX still didn’t recovered all previous losses, Selling bias is postponed, but it is important to note that even though DX (filling the Gap) is Trading near the Support zone, Gold is not under strong Buying pressure (should be considerably Higher), near the Buying Short-term accumulation zone.
Technical analysis: This structure only confirms firm Selling bias on Gold (underlying Bearish trend), as I still haven’t got reason for strategy shift so far. If this is the eventual rejection (#1,842.80 - #1,852.80), then I can have a Sell-off once again back to #1,800.80 benchmark at least. The first level of Long-term Support though is, as mentioned above #1,792.80 (symmetrical from April #15), where the Hourly 4 chart’s fractal also happens to be. Fundamentally, Gold continues to track the DX movement ignoring the (minor but steady) downtrend on Bond Yields possible (Triple Top rejection). Statistic is there to Support my outlook - last Lower High’s Lower zone attempt and apparent rejection, Gold retraced more than #57 points afterwards, so same fractal could be the case shortly. Subsequently, Hourly 4 chart holds some Neutral bias and comes to justify my sidelines decision regarding current session. Despite the obvious recovery from #1,817.80 - #1,827.80 newly formed Bottom, Weekly chart’s (#1W) candle ended on (# -0.75%) in losses, making second Engulfing red candle in a row. Current fractal resembles more and more August #15 - September #26 cycle, where Gold delivered #3 aggressive declines in a row, formed a #11-session Bottom (in form of a Bearish Flag) and exceeded the Selling sequence, sliding more than #105 points in extension (#1,725.80 - #1,620.80). If fractal is yet to be repeated, I am looking at decent possibility of #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test and #1,752.80 barrier in extension. My Technical angle hasn't changed and my break-out points (Bullish / Bearish) remain the same. Keep in mind that Gold’s comparative Technical advantage is ineffective on smaller charts due to it’s aggressive Volatility in certain sessions. Expect #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test within #2 sessions, and implement such formula into your calculations.
My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,835.80 as my key entry point, #1,800.80 psychological benchmark remains an optimal Target.
Fundamental analysis: Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel I mentioned on my remarks is still active on the previous Hourly 1 chart’s candle, however Price-action was headed towards Higher levels, as mentioned, Targeting the #1,852.80 Resistance and strong defensive line Supporting from below, Trading at #1,827.80 (invalidated few sessions ago). As long as #1,827.80 holds as an Support (and market closes above), Gold will Trade under Buying pressure (Buying every Low) before the next Bearish leg, but if #1,827.80 breaks, it should be an aggressive decline and Selling call towards #1,790’s where the Price-action is expected to be in #2-session’s time. To be frank, I am surprised that Gold was extending the consolidation, I expected that to take place after the revelation of the major move on most exchanges. But since the Bond Yields were on a Bearish candles (now on decent recovery / spiral uptrend) and DX still didn’t recovered all previous losses, Selling bias is postponed, but it is important to note that even though DX (filling the Gap) is Trading near the Support zone, Gold is not under strong Buying pressure (should be considerably Higher), near the Buying Short-term accumulation zone.
Technical analysis: This structure only confirms firm Selling bias on Gold (underlying Bearish trend), as I still haven’t got reason for strategy shift so far. If this is the eventual rejection (#1,842.80 - #1,852.80), then I can have a Sell-off once again back to #1,800.80 benchmark at least. The first level of Long-term Support though is, as mentioned above #1,792.80 (symmetrical from April #15), where the Hourly 4 chart’s fractal also happens to be. Fundamentally, Gold continues to track the DX movement ignoring the (minor but steady) downtrend on Bond Yields possible (Triple Top rejection). Statistic is there to Support my outlook - last Lower High’s Lower zone attempt and apparent rejection, Gold retraced more than #57 points afterwards, so same fractal could be the case shortly. Subsequently, Hourly 4 chart holds some Neutral bias and comes to justify my sidelines decision regarding current session. Despite the obvious recovery from #1,817.80 - #1,827.80 newly formed Bottom, Weekly chart’s (#1W) candle ended on (# -0.75%) in losses, making second Engulfing red candle in a row. Current fractal resembles more and more August #15 - September #26 cycle, where Gold delivered #3 aggressive declines in a row, formed a #11-session Bottom (in form of a Bearish Flag) and exceeded the Selling sequence, sliding more than #105 points in extension (#1,725.80 - #1,620.80). If fractal is yet to be repeated, I am looking at decent possibility of #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test and #1,752.80 barrier in extension. My Technical angle hasn't changed and my break-out points (Bullish / Bearish) remain the same. Keep in mind that Gold’s comparative Technical advantage is ineffective on smaller charts due to it’s aggressive Volatility in certain sessions. Expect #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test within #2 sessions, and implement such formula into your calculations.
My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,835.80 as my key entry point, #1,800.80 psychological benchmark remains an optimal Target.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
