Pre earnings analysis on IBM

A gap up on IBM would be odd in this area. I'm not really sure what would happen. It's gapping up into a big resistance, BUT it would also be above the 200 SMA on the weekly (which is a big deal). Most likely, I would expect a small sell off / retracement and then a bounce?

If IBM gaps down (which I think is most likely) and opens in the red zone, some people will be trapped and for 1-4 weeks <max> I would be keeping an eye on a bearish trade into support. Worst case, as low as $153

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IBM is now retesting this purple box / old resistance, new support.