I played this on the upside and got out a couple days ago. I decided to check on it this morning, and based on my dowsing and intuitive method, I expect this to drop pretty decent. Maybe 12%. Then get out.
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Oh, lord. I got my wires crossed on this one. More like up 12%. Oh well.
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In retrospect, this wasn't as horrible as it first appeared, but more work should've been done to confirm timing.
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Looking at this now, and with more practice since then, the guidance was back to $12 in short term.