LTC similar to ETH : bullish momentum dying

9 янв. 2019 г.

Looking at LTCUSD on the 4h chart, I can't help but feeling very bearish.

Arguments for the bear side :

• Elliott count : we can find nine messy waves in both bullish impulses in recent price action
  
• Fibonacci extension : compared to first impulse, we reached an almost perfect 1 to 1 extension
  
• Fibonacci retracement : depending on where you place the start of late 2018 dump, we already reached the golden 0.618 bullish retracement
  
• Price action : LTC shows a high in 42$ zone, a strong support of last downtrend
  
• Trend lines : we just hit the blue resistance in play since ATH a year ago
  
• Patterns : LTC is moving upwards in a curved kind of messy ascending wedge which can only be considered by analogy with ETH chart...
  
• RSI : clean bearish RSI divergence forming on the 4h chart
  

Arguments for the bull side :

• BTC is still bullish. And correlation is not a myth.
  
• Elliott count : apart from 9 messy waves, I can't find a clean Elliott impulse count without breaking any textbook rule. Bad feeling.
  
• Well, that's all. Not much in bulls' favor in my opinion...
  

Trading stance : I'm entering a risky small short position with stop-loss at last high, expecting a strong move downwards at least to retrace this last bullish impulse, and probably to retest recent lows... I'll be happy to be stopped and reopen my short position more confidently on a higher high. Globally, same thoughts as the chart I just posted for ETH.

9 янв. 2019 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

Closed my small short position in small profit when BTC was spiking down. I expect a BTC pump soon, and want to avoid being caught with a short LTC position when it happens. I'll wait for a clear lower high to enter a medium term short position on LTC as discussed above.