Hi,
For people who are saying that Nifty has fallen enough and is now ready for pull-up, sorry to say, there is no such evidence anywhere on horizon. Let us examine one by one as I normally do:
1) FII & DII Buy/ Sell Data- As per provisional data furnished on NSE, FIIs/FPIs were NET SELLERS by about 1394 Crs and DIIs were NET BUYERS by about 2140 Crs (Net buying is more than Net Selling, yet Nifty fell) ! The final data shows even more distubing picture- FIIs/ FPIs were NET SELLERS in Equity by around 2674 Crs, in Index futures by around 600 Crs and in Stock futures by around 294 Crs (Now you see why Nifty fell!). This clearly shows that FIIs are not yet done selling. No matter how much DIIs try to fight, direction, at least for now, is being decided by FIIs.
2) In option chain analysis (tomorrow's expiry) on CALL side, I had said yesterday that 'Call writers have upped their ante' by moving resistance from 11400 to 11350. Today they have moved further and taken it to 11300. Highest fresh Call writing (17.36 lakhs) is seen at 11300 strike with total OI at 26.09 lakhs. Highest total OI of 37.66 lakhs is at 11400 strike though. The strikes of 11250 and 11350 also saw fresh Call writing of more than 9 lakhs. So 11300 is developing as strong resistance. In case it breaks, 11350 and then 11400 also come up as strong resistances. On PUT side there is not a single strike where fresh Put writing is more than 7 lakhs (compare that with Calls where all near ATM strikes have more than 9 lakh contracts as fresh writing). On 11300 strike (where Call writing is 17 lakhs), there is fresh PUT unwinding of 17.09 lakhs (even though total OI is highest at 22.51 lakhs). The highest fresh Put writing 6.82 lakhs is seen at the strike of 11150 with total OI of 9.67 lakhs only. So Put writers are scattered, have no confidence and no conviction at any one strike. In a nutshell 11300 is strong resistance and there is not clear support as per options data.
3) On charts, consider these points- For fifth consecutive day, Nifty has given RED candle with Lower high and Lower low than previous day; It has convincingly broken 200 DEMA and closed below it; It had already broken 78.6% Fibo level yesterday; On MACD, the divergence between signal line and MACD line is still increasing (blue ellipse ); RSI is at 31.4 (not yet in oversold area). Except last indicator, all others point towards strong bearish trend.
Now levels- This is tricky because there are 2 levels one above other. The trader may use his discretion in trading depending on how is the momentum 1) Sell at 11348, with SL at 11365 and target around 11245 (2) Sell at around 11380 with SL at 11 410 and target around 11245.
All the best. Happy trading.
For people who are saying that Nifty has fallen enough and is now ready for pull-up, sorry to say, there is no such evidence anywhere on horizon. Let us examine one by one as I normally do:
1) FII & DII Buy/ Sell Data- As per provisional data furnished on NSE, FIIs/FPIs were NET SELLERS by about 1394 Crs and DIIs were NET BUYERS by about 2140 Crs (Net buying is more than Net Selling, yet Nifty fell) ! The final data shows even more distubing picture- FIIs/ FPIs were NET SELLERS in Equity by around 2674 Crs, in Index futures by around 600 Crs and in Stock futures by around 294 Crs (Now you see why Nifty fell!). This clearly shows that FIIs are not yet done selling. No matter how much DIIs try to fight, direction, at least for now, is being decided by FIIs.
2) In option chain analysis (tomorrow's expiry) on CALL side, I had said yesterday that 'Call writers have upped their ante' by moving resistance from 11400 to 11350. Today they have moved further and taken it to 11300. Highest fresh Call writing (17.36 lakhs) is seen at 11300 strike with total OI at 26.09 lakhs. Highest total OI of 37.66 lakhs is at 11400 strike though. The strikes of 11250 and 11350 also saw fresh Call writing of more than 9 lakhs. So 11300 is developing as strong resistance. In case it breaks, 11350 and then 11400 also come up as strong resistances. On PUT side there is not a single strike where fresh Put writing is more than 7 lakhs (compare that with Calls where all near ATM strikes have more than 9 lakh contracts as fresh writing). On 11300 strike (where Call writing is 17 lakhs), there is fresh PUT unwinding of 17.09 lakhs (even though total OI is highest at 22.51 lakhs). The highest fresh Put writing 6.82 lakhs is seen at the strike of 11150 with total OI of 9.67 lakhs only. So Put writers are scattered, have no confidence and no conviction at any one strike. In a nutshell 11300 is strong resistance and there is not clear support as per options data.
3) On charts, consider these points- For fifth consecutive day, Nifty has given RED candle with Lower high and Lower low than previous day; It has convincingly broken 200 DEMA and closed below it; It had already broken 78.6% Fibo level yesterday; On MACD, the divergence between signal line and MACD line is still increasing (blue ellipse ); RSI is at 31.4 (not yet in oversold area). Except last indicator, all others point towards strong bearish trend.
Now levels- This is tricky because there are 2 levels one above other. The trader may use his discretion in trading depending on how is the momentum 1) Sell at 11348, with SL at 11365 and target around 11245 (2) Sell at around 11380 with SL at 11 410 and target around 11245.
All the best. Happy trading.