NQ Month End Forecast (03-20 / 03-31-23)

Month End 2 week forecast, switching over to new program in April, 23. NAZ in nearly 1 year range (white Box), POC (yellow dash), VA's (white dotted, H/L). The yellow dash lines (13500 & 11300) are extreme H/L targets. Solid yellow's are inside range KL's. Long above solid Yellow Box and Short below. I will provide limited intraday updates of shaded zones and KL's. Opposite direction trades form both, have been reliable. NAZ appears to be balance (inside white Box). Price is above POC (value) and at top of high VA (value area). Rejection above or pull back near POC may be next move. Fed Day this week and month/quarter end next week, so expect some movement as this may be the last push into the lower volume spring/summer months.

4HR with channels

Note: For those that follow, after 3 years and 500 Daily TV Post's, I will be ending the Daily Forecast & Intraday free service. I am moving to a private service that will use TradingView Charts, including my IDS Indicators. Message me if you have interest. Thanks for following and all your support.

Комментарий:

O/N hit 1st Shaded, Play others as targets. Will update pre open.

Комментарий:

Great book I thought I would pass along: Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar, Al Brooks. Chapter 11 covers 1st Hour of Trading and is spot on. Another add that I will include in my subscription service is the use of daily Futures Options. Check out CME/QuikStrike at CME site. QuikStrike is vital for the use of analyzing Options Puts/Calls and expected daily values. Review over the next 2 weeks as I will include the use of these products with trading strategies.

Комментарий:

O/N with a 200 point drop to test VA High of 2 week forecast. Chart below, 12540 is O/N low and 12574 is VA High.

Комментарий:

Notice the 12630 & 12750, these are targets on way back up. Still have some below, may see 2 way movement by Open or in Open session. Short from 1st shaded zone hit (12750) to SZ 12540 was trade to take after 1st NAZ pop up after O/N Open. Now play between 12480 and 12680 SZ's (shaded zone). Updated SZ's below.

Комментарий:

If you are trading, just watch SZ to SZ, Example: 574 VA High long to SZ 630, pass next SZ up (675), reject back to VA High, no hold then may try 480, hold at 480 then back to 574, pass at 574 then may try 675 or 725. This example may actually play out as typed, I would not doubt it (may be by EOD Monday regular session).

Комментарий:

Updated, Long above 12570 (570 near hit or NAZ never approaches) should work for Scalp to 630-675. Your call just a quick look and may drop after that.

Комментарий:

630 Hit, will try 670-75

Комментарий:

Move up stop as 670 did noy get hit and look short on stall out. Back near Open.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

12670 Hit and looking sideways to lower prior to Open. Move up stop and look for Short Scalp. Updated SZ's.

Комментарий:

PB to 12610 is likely, hold on Long if you are flat.

Комментарий:

Mentioned the 680 - 480, may hold as range. I am in and out this week so limited updates.

Комментарий:

NAZ at 12670, PB to 630 likely.

Комментарий:

630 Hit

Комментарий:

640 retest and drop or pop.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones

Комментарий:

Range for break out.

Комментарий:

640 break should go to 700 after retest and confirm. If not 565

Комментарий:

650 test and may drop at no pass.

Комментарий:

This or drop to 600 and bounce

Комментарий:

Updated Zones, a Long into Close and O/N should retry O/N High, Your Call.

Комментарий:

Boring day and the O/N high is once again the high of the day. Expect the Prop into Tuesday, could be wrong but just the pattern. Will update in morning.

Комментарий:

NAZ moves 100 into O/N. 12640 -12740 SZ in O/N. They always sneak it in (low volume and such). Updated SZ's

Комментарий:

NAZ riding the channel line, updated zones/targets, crude did a U Turn, may be a flat one prior to Fed Day.

Комментарий:

Easy trade is the Long into close and O/N when NAZ has lower Regular session. I did not take, just noting for the 100th time. The chart below will show the 2022 Fed Prop Box (4 days), 1st 2023 Box (same days) and the 3rd is my projection. Box is pop and arrow is drop, I will be tilted to the Pop/drop play (just like other 2). Stack the boxes and those 8-12 days are the main lift for past several months, why would it change now? No Fed No Rally, Go Long and ride with the FOMO's, you can Short after.

Комментарий:

Updated zones, 740 is now gone.

Комментарий:

Yesterday was 680-480, today look at 680-50 - 850/900. Back after Open.

Комментарий:

12720 PB likely.

Комментарий:

Keep in mind that the NAZ may exceed O/N high but usually will not maintain. Usually will pass, drop and try again in Dead Zone.

Комментарий:

Open Range

Комментарий:

Got to 40 from upper Open target, PB Zones are 760, 720

Комментарий:

Push Pull is showing up, look 2 way.

Комментарий:

O/N High is key and NAZ back under, typical may/usually struggles and then will magically pop through. Back Later.

Комментарий:

760 and 720 Hit, Divergence on this chart, may drop more.

Комментарий:

Typical O/N Prop Job and Open Selloff. Not seeing big move lower, sideways unless the Ticks get bad, 1268 maybe on low target.

Комментарий:

Hard day, all indexes seem to be rolling over? May pop, if not deeper test.

Комментарий:

NAZ slightest lifts are getting sold.

Комментарий:

12764, bottom 1st 30M retest.

Комментарий:

Dead Zone trying for O/N High.

Комментарий:

764 break will go to 730

Комментарий:

764 to O/N high is range to watch.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones, NAZ hit PB 720 and Dead Zone did try to lift back up. May float or selloff by EOD.

Комментарий:

Looks like NAZ is staying in Open Range posted earlier. Doubt that it goes to 950

Комментарий:

12950 is in view, the run up is one sided and many retests will follow. Updated Zones.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones for PB's. many.

Комментарий:

Updated Post, POC and VA's have not changed much at all. Need to see the support or volume support the price level. Price above value is not good unless value area moves up. Could be great Short should price continue to lift with support remaining lower or far behind. I trust nothing and today was a snail move in the DZ (my magical joke).

Комментарий:

O/N Zone update, 12820 Zone Hit for Short from 12890. Notice new zone above at 12885 and 788 below. May be range.

Комментарий:

updated Zones

Комментарий:

Yellow arrow is Trend and Box is Bracket for breakout.

Комментарий:

Long on 2nd hit of lower bracket to 840. Stop 10-20 under Lower bracket and Short at 840 on no pass. Scalp Trades.

Комментарий:

840 Hit, move stop and NAZ may try for 870. No Short yet.

Комментарий:

Next moves, back later.

Комментарий:

IDS20,for those that plan to join the Trading Group, email me at [e-mail] / The chart below will provided and the following is what to look for or start to get familiar with: When the lower indicator is above Zero and the White bars (near arrow) are rising, you would trend Long. Reverse when lower below Zero and Red bars are falling. Use Shaded Zones as targets/reverse trades.

Комментарий:

70% of the time the NAZ will move within a bracket prior to break out. IDS20 will help with identifying the range and show divergence that will send the NAZ back to top/bottom. The bracket Scalp points add up while the NAZ goes nowhere.

Комментарий:

White arrow is most likely a Short set up for NAZ to try lower Zones. Need to watch sideways movement at 840 and red line staying below prior red line 12855. White is above white so Long until red line play out. 4am to 5am is inside prior move (red/white).

Комментарий:

Turd developing above 12850 and may try for 870, stall and fall. These Scalps need to play out and waiting is key as the games are played.

Комментарий:

Range of play for break out, prior to Open.

Комментарий:

Yellow Dash = POC for the day, purpleish lines are VA's Top/bottom. O/N tested yesterday Top VA. May try again in Open or under POC. Current red line did move up but we have very little movement in range. The weak slow lift is misleading as we approach Fed Decision. Believe that sell the news is the play today.

Комментарий:

870 rejected and back to mid range. Watch yellow arrow or red bar of previous and white bar drop. No drop stay Long, on drop go short. Looking for NAZ to break out of VA's and yellow Box.

Комментарий:

FYI 12840 is Mid Range, not a good spot to start a trade. No Trade Zone or lower probability area. Trading near upper/lower range in opposite direction is preferred.
Long at 820 and short at 870 would of been trades. These levels had been mentioned prior to the moves that have played out. Keep this in mind as the NAZ bounces around the Box/Range (most likely) most of the morning or until Fed Explosion.

Комментарий:

12870, Short to lower Box for a test. 820 or 800

Комментарий:

Stop under 12850 on Short.

Комментарий:

12940 upper hit, NAZ may drop from here, use stop at 950 on short if still on.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones, PB to 12900 likely

Комментарий:

NAZ under 940 should try 830, slow day. Scalping until explosion.

Комментарий:

Updated Shaded, NAZ bounced off Top Box.

Комментарий:

830 is target

Комментарий:

870 to top is most likely a clean out. 950 was limit or stop.

Комментарий:

Updated zones

Комментарий:

910 retest

Комментарий:

under 910 strong short.

Комментарий:

Deep negative Ticks and NAZ is hanging. Rigged.

Комментарий:

Huge Option Put order volume at 12500, may be low.

Комментарий:

877 held, Closing Short at 895, -25. Will reload. Strange support here.

Комментарий:

Price still way above value, nothing is changing except price is rising. Price usually heads back to value, value needs to lift for long play.

Комментарий:

905-10 retested, wiggle move will clean out everything.

Комментарий:

Last Update prior to release

Комментарий:

This before (box and arrow are projections), the usual play is the Prop FOMO lift, then the 30 plus day drop.

Комментарий:

12980 will go to 13200 is stays above

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

Not sure, other indexes are flatish

Комментарий:

If you are trading, you may want to wait until after he talks. All he has to say is anything and the NAZ will jump 500 points. Good if you are Long, bad if short so wait.

Комментарий:

updated zones

Комментарий:

877 again, will hold most likely

Комментарий:

Staying in Range of Zones.

Комментарий:

FOMO Push see Ticks

Комментарий:

Important Update, NAZ will up or lower here.

Комментарий:

840 is target, same as my 1st trade, funny.

Комментарий:

840 taken now up and may try High, not kidding.

Комментарий:

More box to fill.

Комментарий:

IDS20, when 840 zone was taken out the NAZ did not hit 13200. Turned at 980 and went to lower zones. The lower has to be up for Longs and lower for Shorts. Just follow the system. Was trading and could not type. New system will be live.

Комментарий:

12000 next ?

Комментарий:

Price is moving toward value, always look at this.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones for O/N and tomorrow.

Комментарий:

CL or Crude may be a Short.

Комментарий:

We are at yesterday low. Look for rallies up, stalling and falling. That is how the drops have been playing out. Highly doubt that we see any big 1 way lower days.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones, NAZ trying for 780 and after with no pass may try 705, will check back in morning with the weather forecast also.

Комментарий:

SaneusiRsebuN with another great call in O/N, I encourage this so join in if you would like. Rule is you have to post Entry (prior to any significant run), Target and update your exit or reverse. More mind are better and I am ultimately try to find the service/person that will let me sit back and just press buttons, this may be you. Anyway, Shaded Zones are new and have been reliable. Updated are below, the NAZ tends to target the nearest one and if no hit will change direction. This was the result yesterday of my "Important Update" comment. I will update as day plays out.

Комментарий:

Regarding the 2 week "weather forecast", the chart below is what we have seen from White Arrow to upper Box, rejection and now resting on a Key Level (KL). Yellow arrow is range through Friday close, IMO.

Комментарий:

Like I stated after the close, we will see rallies/lifts up, stall and drops. This is how the NAZ will decline, get use to the O/N propping up after a big down day, these are the easiest trades and have been going on the entire Bear. This offset is used to stabilize the index and create great Shorts for the Open Range (1st 30M). IDS20 below, notice lower indicator is above zero and price did take out SZ 12780, passed 788. Just expect a retest below should any SZ's above not get hit.

Комментарий:

IDS250, NAZ will try 12600 prior to next attempt higher. Back later, like I stated not in as much this week or next.

Комментарий:

IDS20 lower is below zero, next set up for short, expect a wiggle and any drop that does not hit lower SZ will come back up. Short development needs to play out. Anyway, 12860-12700 may be range for Open and large part of the day.

Комментарий:

12850 was Bottom of yesterday Open Range (1st 30M), watch Top, Mid, Bottom of that and any rejection will send NAZ lower.

Комментарий:

Watch the Diablo (NAZ Killer), may rotate around some. I have seen it pass and then go back under pretty hard. Use as Long above/Short below for Scalps.

Комментарий:

12930 is upper limit today, should NAZ get passed 850-60. Short set up is still in bracket and will go with rejection under 850-60.

Комментарий:

Notice lower and SZ's, squeeze developing and NAZ will shoot out to top for break or strong rejection. Short set up is still in Bracket.

Комментарий:

SZ 835 is gone, rejected NAZ, updates below.

Комментарий:

Anyway, this has been a good example of how a Short develops. You can see the hit in 90's, pop up in Bracket and retest at lower Bracket. Still needs to get lower but the upper range of Bracket is the Short from and not the 1st hit lower. NAZ should blow out of the bottom and you should be in from 835.

Комментарий:

Can somebody tell me why these indexes are up at all? Rigged Long Trap, the NAZ will be broken down by the EOW, Back Later. 12800 holding will produce a pop up, so place stop on short at entry of just above.

Комментарий:

SZ's, purple lines are VA (value area) with yellow as POC, NAZ needs to leave range.

Комментарий:

920 failure look short 830 PB 1st.

Комментарий:

12900 is head fake long, top yesterday 1st 30M.

Комментарий:

840 is next test.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

920 hit, Zones for back under.

Комментарий:

waiting on retracement to end, NAZ just playing in range.

Комментарий:

Strong Short 13015, edge Trade 100 point stop 5 contracts

Комментарий:

Stop at 315

Комментарий:

Lower low and lower high is the play. Will reload if stopped.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones

Комментарий:

12900 next

Комментарий:

Like I aid, the NAZ will go higher 1st, stall and drop. Typical offset Bear.

Комментарий:

Should break as FOMO's and BTD's are all on board, may not until later. 13080 is in view on hold.

Комментарий:

Range until close.

Комментарий:

Deep negative Ticks should show up for drop test, 12900 hold is a Long back up. Stop at 330

Комментарий:

13030 Stop.

Комментарий:

980 Break is all that is needed.

Комментарий:

On Edge Trade yellow line would be Add Shorts.

Комментарий:

Stop at 015

Комментарий:

Closing 5 at 12970, plus 45 x 5 225

Комментарий:

Play range should come back up some. Back later.

Комментарий:

957 may bounce.

Комментарий:

957 did bounce and will try 13003. 957 was top 1st Hour.

Комментарий:

Zone Update

Комментарий:

Above 957 should try top, KL to watch. This is a No Trade Zone or Bracket, hard to predict.

Комментарий:

Strange here at 12970, Ticks have been constant -300ish and O/N provided much of lift, just not feeling the strength. Lately that really does not matter as the lift just shows up. Careful will check back.

Комментарий:

Range is playing out

Комментарий:

Range and Long above 840 or should 840 hold. CL is selling off.

Комментарий:

Diablo, back to and may hold. Mentioned the NAZ will do this.

Комментарий:

Bounced off Diablo.

Комментарий:

Strong Short was the hold, next time. NAZ is all over the place.

Комментарий:

Even though NAZ was up (due to O/N prop) the stronger volume was to the downside today, in the Open Session and not fake O/N.

Комментарий:

Zones for O/N, use as targets and entries.

Комментарий:

NAZ tried for 12911 and did not hit, will try again or drop to lower zone.

Комментарий:

NAZ with 2nd rejection at Box Top, 3rd tomorrow or South?

Комментарий:

Crude looks similar, all cylinder's South?

Комментарий:

Testing this new Zone Signal that I have been using past few weeks, pretty reliable. If you compare the proceeding chart to a current chart you will see that I delete a zone once it is hit. I the add a new one that has developed. The remaining are the next or current targets. Current chart with zones is below. Keep the Diablo in your view.

Комментарий:

Current as 830 was hit, look at 12900 or 1230 next. Nobody knows which is next, one will most likely get hit and then to the other. Sounds crazy but watch it play out.

Комментарий:

Zone Update, NAZ in 100 point range, Dax and Crude lower, looking lower for today. Notice how NAZ took out SZ 12890 and fell back. Set would of been Long to SZ 12890 and reverse on break failure with target at SZ 12730 (long term). Since SZ hit, I have added 2 new SZ's, but keep SZ's 12950/12730 in your plans.

Комментарий:

Past 2 days have had the exact same Open Range's (1st 30M), balanced. The Box is your guide, Short below and Long above with Long try to pass 12300 (3rd attempt). Thinking 1 way South Drive today. But always plan for some strange move higher at some point as the rigging stabilizing games will show up to shake you out. SZ 12825 just got hit.

Комментарий:

Bigger picture

Комментарий:

NAZ out of box, 12734 is target

Комментарий:

Starting to get some nit picker's past few days, F Off with your BS, D Bags.

Комментарий:

Crude Update, $2 lower since last chart.

Комментарий:

Updated zones, 12820 and under stay Short

Комментарий:

To be clear, the Short should have come from Upper SZ that got hit. If you are entering now you would expect a pop/Long up to 820 for your entry. Your Short entry is late and you have to deal with Open Range wiggle, so a Long here is most likely the correct play and not a Short (12777 is KL from few days ago)

Комментарий:

X marks the spot, TLX 849 would suggest Long above and short below. Notice how low is approaching/falling from 820. Got to move quick and I can't type and scalp, back after open.

Комментарий:

12823 is lower VA and may be hard to pass. 847 is OR Open Range bottom, so Long has some obstacles if trying for 850-60. This is the Short entry set up that I was mentioning (long to 820 was idea, then reverse), Open is the variable that will shake you out so hold off or use wide stop.

Комментарий:

12800 Long offset pop coming through, This is where they prop up to offset the big one later.

Комментарий:

12800 20 point pop was the head fake that set up the 50 point drop to 12770. This is what you need to look for as the NAZ moves from zone to zone.

Комментарий:

New Zone 750 is Long to 780. The yellow arrow is the original Short Idea at 5AM, the 3 Hit at 820 was the set up for the 750 or 730 SZ try (called earlier). No hit at 730 is a Long back up to 780 or 820. You have to be super quick and this is why I can't type and trade. Eventually this just get programmed in you head and yo see it.

Комментарий:

Anyway, NAZ is struggling to get lower so expect a pop up prior to big drop and look for Push/Pull PA. Best indicator of a Short day. Big picture is that NAZ is still in range of yesterday, just busywork BS as we approach Open. Take profit on Shorts until jerky PA fades.

Комментарий:

Thinking this for Open, lets see.

Комментарий:

Set take profits at 50 points, long from 770 is last good entry, if you missed 750, 820 needs to break for up move. 1st major stal will see a drop test today.

Комментарий:

770 Long should be flat.

Комментарий:

Crude came up 1.5%, Algo's follow.

Комментарий:

So far

Комментарий:

730 -20 is KL

Комментарий:

Watch TL

Комментарий:

above 722, Dead Zone will Jack this back up.

Комментарий:

Still nowhere new, play the range.

Комментарий:

Key Point, Notice the bottom 12730 and reaction to what 12950, Watch, no hit coming back down.

Комментарий:

12920 Short was only great Short. All others had to be scalped in order to work out. You can play under 12920 in either direction.

Комментарий:

Set your Take Profit at 50 points, this has been the range per move. Back later.

Комментарий:

1st HR in, still nowhere. This is being held up, be careful on the Long side. Like yesterday, I waited for retracement and went short. Scalp Longs until the drop comes. Play their game. 840 seems to a problem. May try Shorting from there with 50 point stop. So long to and short from. Your call I am gone for a bit.

Комментарий:

Shorting from TLX, Working TLX's are reliable for turning points, NAZ gets above a Long may work.

Комментарий:

Updated

Комментарий:

TLX no pass

Комментарий:

Zone 780 hit, next move should be it.

Комментарий:

Crude was flat now -1.5%, -4 to 0 and back under.

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

I believe that 13000 retest is out, may see a drop today under TLX.

Комментарий:

840 trades are working, strong short under 722

Комментарий:

865 or 710, NAZ still in Open Range. Another drop may be here under 788

Комментарий:

Not taking this Long at 12790, only well above TLX after retest.

Комментарий:

Sideways slow roller prior to next move, could float up, typical Friday. Back Later, Flat until break out.

Сделка закрыта вручную:

Will close this post here and start new Monday. Done, can't trade the Snail floaters, just too easy and make me nervous, have fun as it may go all the way to the moon. Will Short and come back in should it actually, really, for once HAPPEN. Scalping is getting old, we need a solid break out in either direction. Yesterday looked like it, but the sold all off and then some.

Комментарий:

Updated Zones, NAZ may try hard to break 840-50. No go heading South.

Комментарий:

IDS20, rule of thumb is 3 or so hits at Bar, no pass, opposite direction trade.

Комментарий:

Single Hit sessions are whipsaw and less reliable, back to prior 3 hit session level

Комментарий:

Line up lower Peaks with Price, Current session could be head fake or break out, time of day is random.

Комментарий:

2 hits, needs to pass or this is a Short.

Комментарий:

Tricky, 790?

Комментарий:

Red Bar dropped, suggests weakness. Needs to lift past other. If does not, will see a snap drop.

Комментарий:

Sorry Yellow is POC, Red is above Red.

Комментарий:

820 is box bottom and what to watch.

Комментарий:

Pop up looks like a Turd, may come back

Комментарий:

Turd Trick so far. Good as long it stays above 820.

Комментарий:

POC dropped. May hit zone above and drop.

Комментарий:

Waiting for lower indicator to drop

Комментарий:

TLX is blocking

Комментарий:

Waiting on Ticks

Комментарий:

Should drop,, again random zone.

Комментарий:

Turd

Комментарий:

920 above 820, this is so typical and why I pass. Hard to believe, every Friday.

Комментарий:

Great Log trap, but I highly doubt it. Mentioned 950 earlier, not far.

Комментарий:

At Turd top, needs fall trough.

Комментарий:

Strange day, NAZ still nowhere.

Комментарий:

840 miss, 920 is next

Комментарий:

Friday played out well, missed one at the end. Thing is, we get tired and by late week we are zapped. I think this why Friday afternoons are a great time to sneak in a move that favors the retail mindset and not institutional/trader. Review notes, called each move but had scrambled brain from all the scalps by the end. I think this is done by design (shake traders out). O/N high was 1st prop move (as world indexes, crude) were down big. Then lowest SZ to next highest major SZ with many direction changes (all day). NAZ closes where, O/N high. A MACD indicator may show the set up for a drop, if I am looking at correct. This could be the lift prior to and we may expect additional into Monday and possibly through. 13000 is in view for another test.

Updated Zone for Sunday/Monday

Комментарий:

VA & POC, not much change. Price is still high above value.