NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (May 23-27)

Last the Nasdaq closed down 4.38% from the previous week’s close. This was the 7th weekly negative close, but it is worth noting the weekly close did not make a new weekly low closing approximately 137 points above the May 12th low. This kept the double bottom pattern intact to close out the week which may prove to me significant. My bias remains bearish, however, as price sits below the 9/21 ema cloud and is still well below the neutral box.

Going into this week we will find out if the Friday rebound in price was due to short covering and OPEX shenanigans. The key pivots are the Mar 20th low at 11491 and the double bottom pivot at 12594. If price breaks above 12594 look for a move up to the bottom of the neutral box at 12800. Above that a move to 13694 is possible. If the double bottom fails at 11491 look for a move to the expanding trendline and the 2.24 Fib extension at 10544. Below that a panic flush to the 618 Fib retracement at 9453 is possible.

This week the market will continue to be tortured by more Fed heads speaking including Powell on Tuesday. New home sales and Crude Inventories will also be released this week. On the earning front there is a slew of Canadian banks reporting as well a some highly followed retailers such as COST, M & AEO reporting.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed’s Botic speaks
Tuesday New Home sales & Powell speaks
Wednesday US Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & FOMC minutes
Thursday US Jobless claims & US GDP
Friday US Consumer Spending

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ZM
Tuesday ANF, BBY, CSIQ, NTES, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday BMO, BNS, DKS, GES, NIO,NVDA, SNOW
Thursday BABA, BIDU, BZUN, DG, DLTR, M, RY, TD, AEO, ADSK, COST, GPS, MRVL, ZS
Friday BIG, CGC

BULLISH

Positive Earnings momentum
Oversold conditions
Potential de-escalation in Ukraine
Further pull back in bond yields
USD Weakens
Mega Caps rebound

BEARISH

Continued Hawkish talk from Fed Heads
Escalation of the war in Ukraine
Continuation of inflationary pressures
Bond yields continue higher
USD continues to strengthen
Continued Weakness in Mega Caps

Комментарий:

Only a just begun the week and the Nas has already given up 200+ points from the over night gains. It has been a very effective strategy of late to buy the close and sell the open. The red arrows mark the key pivots to watch.

Комментарий:

Positive move yesterday got rejected harshly at near term resistance. May 20th low obviously in play. Powell's remarks today will be key to whether or not this level will hold.

Комментарий:

May 20th low has held so far and price has just been consolidating along the higher time frame 382 Fib Retracement. Basically the market is deciding if will bounce from here or make another leg lower. Can't do much until a clear level is broken.

Комментарий:

Broke out of consolidation and made a nice move up yesterday. Hitting the 21 ema now which may act as resistance. Above the 21 look for a move to the key pivot and the bottom of the neutral.

Комментарий:

Strong close to the week for the bulls. Broke the downward trendline and is now above the key 12594 pivot and the 21 ema. This is also the first close above the previous week's high in 8 weeks. Enjoy your weekend.