NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Nov7-11)

The Nasdaq finished the week down 6% after trading a range of 931 points. Price has fallen once again below the 9/21/55 emas as well as the June 16th low and now sits precariously above the Oct 13th low. The key driver last week was the FOMC .75% rate hike and hawkish commentary from JPOW. The fed pivot in now off the table and focus will turn to CPI data due out on Thursday and US Mid Term elections on Tuesday. Below are some points I am considering.

• Coming off 6% down week after hawkish FOMC
• Nasdaq below 9/21/55 ema and the June 16th low
• Sitting at key support
• Mid term election on Tuesday
• CPI data out on Thursday
• Many small cap growth names reporting earnings this week
• Chinese names in focus after strong bounce Friday and next week’s earnings
• H patter in play (strong move in either direction possible)
• Nasdaq in historically bullish period
• VIX neutral at 24.56
• Downside trendline and Fib X projects a potential longer term move down to 9700
• Upside trendline and Fib RT projects a potential longer term move up to 12500

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed’s Collins, Mester & Barkin speak
Tuesday US Mid term elections
Wednesday Fed’s Williams & Barkin speak, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims, US CPI & Fed heads speak
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday BLDP, PLTR, CRON, ATVI, FANG, DOCN, LYFT, PACB, QGEN, SEDG, TTWO, TRIP
Tuesday COTY, DD, MNKD, NCLH, REYN, AMC, AFRM, BLNK, CLNE, LCID, NVAX, OXY, PLUG, UPST, WTI, DIS
Wednesday CGC, DHI, AG, HBI, RBLX, RCI, TTD, BYND, CELH, APPS, RDFN, PLBY, U,
Thursday AZN, CAE, NIO, YETI, DOCS, MTTR, TOST
Friday AQN, SJR

BULLISH NOTES

Historically bullish period for Nasdaq
H patter in play (big bull or bear move possible)
Oversold conditions
VIX below 25
Potential positive reactions to CPI
Potential positive reaction to Mid Term results
Potential move in 10y below 3.90%

BEARISH NOTES

Below 9/21/55 ema
Below June 16th low
H pattern in play (big bull or bear move possible)
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Potential negative reaction to Mid Term results
Hawkish Fed
Potential move in 10y above 4.33%

Комментарий:

Here is a zoomed out look at the Nasdaq with the h pattern and the up/down side target areas.

Комментарий:

The Nasdaq broke from a base pattern today and has pushed back into the June 16th low. Once again this key level comes into play. Bulls want to see price break through and bears want price to reject. If price can get above the level the 55 ema will be in play. If price rejects the recent low will be in play.

Комментарий:

Price now above the June 16th low. It needs to hold the level to keep moving higher. Expect resistance and the 21 ema. It must clear that level as well to make it to the 55 ema.

Комментарий:

Clearly the 21 ema was respected yesterday. Carry forward that level as key upside resistance. Yesterday's low is the important level to the downside. A break in either direction is possible today. CPI out tomorrow.

Комментарий:

Yesterday the previous day's low was broken leading to a decent move to the downside. This morning due to a lower than expected CPI the machines have closed their shorts sending the NQ up 380 pts in a split second. Must wait for the cash open to assess which way the market wants to go. Bulls will want price to hold at least 50% of this move up. Bears will want to see a deeper move back down. Would not be surprised to see a pull back or consolidation to digest this move b/f price continuation.

Комментарий:

Absolutely massive move today without any p/b. As noted in my original posts I knew a big move was possible in either direction. I did not expect this kind of move in 1 day. Now watching the top of the recent range above the 55 ema. If price can hold 50% of today's move up a trip to the target zone above is likely. Target zone is a confluence of the 618 Fib, trend line and 200 sma.