I expect palladium to start an accumulation process in the following months for the following reasons:
Technicals:
Positioning:
Fundamentals:
In the short term I think palladium can go to 1350.
Technicals:
- Palladium is in an untested demand zone which includes 5 years and 10 years
- It is in an untested demand zone which correspond to the restest of 2001 highs and the breakout of 2018
- There is a divergence on the MACD
- Seasonality is positive from mid December to March
Positioning:
- The number of speculators shorts are at an all time high in the COT reports of Palladium Futures
Fundamentals:
- Lower rates should support higher prices
- Palladium is mainly used in catalyst from fuel-engined cars. The demand for hybrid cars and plug-in rechargeables is expected to increase a lot in the coming years especially in the US and Canada where fully EVs are not ideal because of long distances vs Europe.
In the short term I think palladium can go to 1350.