SPX weekend update

31 июл. 2022 г.

Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings.

Notes from the chart:

4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower)
Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX

- Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first
- 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now

Buy zone for tomorrow with stops!
- 4012, 4027.50SPX
- 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested

Short
- 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25

- Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th;
- No current long position, only short

Old pathway still can be in play:
- rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time
- Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA

After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over.

Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low

Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up


Additional to add:

We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend.

There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart.

- We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug
- As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th.

I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri .
Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div .
After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels
I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.