S&P 500: final push before correction
Technical analysis of the S&P 500
The market-wide US stock index S&P 500 shows an intact upward trend in all relevant time levels. After a false breakout below the 50-day line up to 4,164 points on June 18, the index started again last week and was able to advance to a new record high of 4,286 points by Friday.
From a price point of view, everything stays in the green. Meanwhile, warning signs of an imminent correction phase are multiplying beneath the surface. For the first time in a long time, there was a small negative divergence in the advance-decline line, both in the daily and weekly charts. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day line has shown such a negative divergence for some time. The McClellan oscillator is still trading in negative territory despite a rally lasting several days and a record high in the index. In other words: the market breadth is weakening. There are also numerous warning signals from the momentum-based oscillators. Finally, the situation in the sentiment indicators tends to be negative. Seasonality is still positive, but in accordance with the typical cycle, an increased probability of a weak phase starting in July can be assumed.
We therefore favor that the current price surge will be followed by a medium-term phase of weakness. However, price signals for this remain to be seen. According to our assessment, the chart shows a plausible maximum target zone at around 4,350-4,400 points, as long as the most recent breakout above 4,257 points does not turn out to be a false breakout. Intermediate goals and hurdles are 4,287 / 4,293 points and 4,307 / 4,314 points. A significant end of the day below 4,257 points would provide a first price warning signal for a pronounced phase of weakness. Confirmation would be a subsequent slide under the more solid catchment area below 4.164 / 4.193 points. We see potential medium-term relevant targets at 4,057 points and 3,854 points.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided.
The market-wide US stock index S&P 500 shows an intact upward trend in all relevant time levels. After a false breakout below the 50-day line up to 4,164 points on June 18, the index started again last week and was able to advance to a new record high of 4,286 points by Friday.
From a price point of view, everything stays in the green. Meanwhile, warning signs of an imminent correction phase are multiplying beneath the surface. For the first time in a long time, there was a small negative divergence in the advance-decline line, both in the daily and weekly charts. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day line has shown such a negative divergence for some time. The McClellan oscillator is still trading in negative territory despite a rally lasting several days and a record high in the index. In other words: the market breadth is weakening. There are also numerous warning signals from the momentum-based oscillators. Finally, the situation in the sentiment indicators tends to be negative. Seasonality is still positive, but in accordance with the typical cycle, an increased probability of a weak phase starting in July can be assumed.
We therefore favor that the current price surge will be followed by a medium-term phase of weakness. However, price signals for this remain to be seen. According to our assessment, the chart shows a plausible maximum target zone at around 4,350-4,400 points, as long as the most recent breakout above 4,257 points does not turn out to be a false breakout. Intermediate goals and hurdles are 4,287 / 4,293 points and 4,307 / 4,314 points. A significant end of the day below 4,257 points would provide a first price warning signal for a pronounced phase of weakness. Confirmation would be a subsequent slide under the more solid catchment area below 4.164 / 4.193 points. We see potential medium-term relevant targets at 4,057 points and 3,854 points.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided.
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.