You against inflation

13 янв. 2023 г.Money printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard.

In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities.
In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing.

With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation.
There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation".

If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome:

This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed.

To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by spy_master

DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD.

We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own.

For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail...

These fib-retracements are very beautiful...
SPX:




NDQ:


They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us.

After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now?

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

14 янв. 2023 г.

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The 2015-2021 peak is not random, it is the .50 retracement from two different periods. As if everything circles around that point...

The big one is also ~50% larger than the small one. Talking about a halving...

14 янв. 2023 г.

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... U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday the United States will likely hit the $31.4 trillion statutory debt limit on Jan. 19, forcing the Treasury to launch extraordinary cash management measures that can likely prevent default until early June.
endtimeheadlines.org/2023/01/big-us-banks-brace-for-recession-yellen-warns-of-u-s-default-risk-by-early-june/
I've been hearing it since 2021, the US cannot borrow anymore. With yield rates that high, can they find the money to pay their obligations?

14 янв. 2023 г.

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Again, the 2015-2022 period:

A beautiful HnS is formed. Or another way to visualize it is Cerberus, the three-headed beast guarding the Underworld.
Another small head seems to have formed this year.

14 янв. 2023 г.

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The chart speaks on it's own.

How far will we have to drop if the everything bubble bursts? How far below us is the trend?

23 янв. 2023 г.

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The violation of this trend marks the end of QE. This shows the true effect. I hope you all understand it.

With Green and Red arrows, I have marked the points I used to draw the rays.

These long-term rays, prove as significant resistance.
Hitting one of them, was a fundamental reason the Black Monday was so severe.

20 нояб. 2023 г.

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