Crashing or Correcting? I say...

23 янв. 2022 г.

This appears to be perfectly in line with an expected correction. Cycle 1 just end at the beginning of January, which was about 2 earlier than my initial estimates but that is why I call them estimates. Cycle 2 should bottom around early March.

Historically speaking, the second Cycle wave retraces the length of its wave 1 by 10-23%. The largest retracement was 39%, but corrections appear to be quicker and steeper these days so I am sticking with the 10-23% range as the likely zone for this one. A 23% could have this wave last 104 days which is late May. I would call this retracement the least likely. This date can serve as the maximum possible bottom.

The majority of historical datapoints suggest the end of this Cycle wave could end 44-48 trading days after it begun. This is the early March endpoint, discussed above. I have painted these narrow zones based off of typical wave 2 retracements of wave 1. The major zones for the bottom are between 3989.09-4166.66, 3800-3989.09, and 3605.84-3800. My initial rough math guess was a bottom around 3636, but I am favoring the middle zone here. We still have hundreds of points to shave off the index so I expect the next months to be rocky.

Remember Cycle wave 2 is a 3-wave pattern down (in this case). That means wave A will be down, wave B will move up, I will provide better estimates on that soon. Lastly wave C will take us home to the bottom.

My second analysis will be where I project the current SuperCycle to end, based on the end of Cycle 1.