More chop/more possibilities - SPX500

6 окт. 2022 г.

Yesterday I noted that we ended with a hanging man candle under the daily 18ma. Under the daily 18ma, the bias is down and with a hanging man candle it may be a hint of a reversal. The paths I'm thinking are possible are shown. I personally still think we will end the week under 3700 and the weekly candle will look like a false breakout, but I will not short until I see a break below yesterday's lows and a retest of the channel. The Market was aware of the channel yesterday so it will surely be aware if we break below it today or tomorrow. A higher high today should be treated with suspicion as it may complete the 3 wave move up. Good luck!

6 окт. 2022 г.

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if we get under the channel today, I expect a number of stops to get hit, however they likely will try to retake the channel. For adding shorts, that retest of the channel is a more ideal entry than here. Still could go higher today, but this reversal looks convincing as of now. Daily close will be important.

6 окт. 2022 г.

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AAPL under support level, BUlls trying to hold on to it.

6 окт. 2022 г.

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Shorted aapl, 144.5 next support, but I believe the turn is in. Stop at 147 in case i'm wrong

6 окт. 2022 г.

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SPX is fighting hard to keep uptrend. AAPL bulls as well not giving up. I may get stopped out there, no problem. If SPX can start getting over 3780 we may reach 3815 by EOD in which case I will be suspicious of the last high but I will wait to see how tomorrow looks after 8;30 economy numbers

6 окт. 2022 г.

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neither side is winning and it may be like this into EOD, Transports are showing relative strength and some think of DJT as a leading indicator. It's possible the market does nothing much until after 830am numbers tomorrow morning.

6 окт. 2022 г.

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SPX, consolidation - usually breaks towards the trend it started with - in this case down, but it doesn't have to.

6 окт. 2022 г.

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Triangle broke, objective short here but bears need to be careful of a false breakdown

6 окт. 2022 г.

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test and rejected so far

6 окт. 2022 г.

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daily candle now starting to look like a reversal after hangman candle. The redder the better for bears

6 окт. 2022 г.

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If we retest the channel again it will likely break as most stops from yesterday's bulls will probably be there.

6 окт. 2022 г.

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3700 needs to break for the selling to intensify

6 окт. 2022 г.

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side note - TLRY earnings tomorrow and it's suddenly up 13 percent. Not sure what to make of it

6 окт. 2022 г.

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I guess this news just hit cnn.com/2022/10/06/politics/marijuana-decriminalization-white-house-joe-biden/index.html

6 окт. 2022 г.

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Nice solid red candle on futures after yesterday's hanging man, Tomorrow it needs to break below channel under 3700.