Longterm view on S&P 500
Обновлено
Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position.
Some fun facts:
- Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat.
- Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious.
- Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE.
- Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here.
I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
Some fun facts:
- Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat.
- Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious.
- Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE.
- Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here.
I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
Заметка
totally overanalyzed this one, first of all should've been using monthly candles for a time frame this long, and I drew way too many zones.I'm still content to sit out the sp500 though. i'd be interested in buying between 1500-2000.
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