13102023 - #SPX

13 окт. 2023 г.

Yesterday I was bias long for a move higher as a continuation of Wednesday's bullish price action. But did not get it. Price was capped most of the time by the 4406 strong resistance and it sold off on the US CPI. 4362 was the level I gave for a buy. It did give a 20 points bounce but only temporary before market sold off further. Not a data analyst or a fundamental analyst but the 3.7% CPI data is higher than expectation (3.6%) but 0.1% IMO is insignificant, though the more pertinent issue might be CPI is increasing.

But the more important question now is, how will the week end? Is it the start of next leg down? Yesterday's price action is bearish but market did make quite a recovery. Question also is that is the low A long wick, as mentioned before, often see a revisit of the wick (of the low that is). But probably a good thing to note is, price closed above the DBZ, which is, by definition, bullish. Thus overall, it is neutral.

For today, IMO, better to trade later than earlier. Price has opened and is attacking the PZ, as resistance above and the DBZ as support below. We are approaching 4360 or so, which yesterday I said is a buy zone and now will act as resistance.
IMO, if market move higher first, could look for an opportunity to go short, but IMO 4380 will be the better price to go short. And if from here, market is rejected by the PZ and goes down first, 4340 would likely be the level to watch for a bounce, make a higher low and actually for price to go higher from here.

All will likely depends on how price move during European session. If you look at the weekly candle now however, IMO, I will not be looking for it to close red (possibly but unlikely). Closing at current price or even higher seems more likely IMO.