The market is stuck in a loop
- Any scent of good news pushes the market up but only goes down on a piece of catastrophic bad news. This is the sign of extreme denial and complecency stating the market up loop has been reached. A new down loop will form soon.
- Investors getting desensitized to bad news and rather to react to anything that pushes the market higher regardless of substance.
Recent Rally is Technical Correction
- The recent rally is technical correction due to rotation from momentum to value.
- The bond market was oversold, and it is taking a breather before the flight to safety is resumed to push the yields lower
ECB cut won't alleviate long term risk
- Sterling was oversold and has rebounded, but the fluctuation will come back again pushing it lower
- European investors remain on the sideline as even ten base ECB cut won't encourage them to make a big investment decision
The Chinese economy is slowing down
- Recent easing by Bejing including tariff exclusion list are designed to sooth to current pain
- China is on the path of decoupling from the US that will continue for the next 7-10 years
US economy further weakness through 2020-2021
- The US economy growth will slow down, and GDP goes down to below 2%
- Trade war and Tariff has shaken long term investor confidence that won't be repaired till 2021
Market will sell-off 10-20%
- The global market will break down from the current up and down loop to create a new low
- When risk premium goes down 20%, the road to recovery will begin slowly moving up in 2021
2020 will be the worst year in Stock market history
- The global market will realize and accept the Cold war between the US, and China is a new reality
- A new economic alliance will be forged between different economy blocks
Think Tanks already know
- We are entering a new era of economic uncertainty that will change the rule book for central banks and global investments
- The old elusion of unified global connected market will be replaced by regional interest
- Welcome to the new world!
- Any scent of good news pushes the market up but only goes down on a piece of catastrophic bad news. This is the sign of extreme denial and complecency stating the market up loop has been reached. A new down loop will form soon.
- Investors getting desensitized to bad news and rather to react to anything that pushes the market higher regardless of substance.
Recent Rally is Technical Correction
- The recent rally is technical correction due to rotation from momentum to value.
- The bond market was oversold, and it is taking a breather before the flight to safety is resumed to push the yields lower
ECB cut won't alleviate long term risk
- Sterling was oversold and has rebounded, but the fluctuation will come back again pushing it lower
- European investors remain on the sideline as even ten base ECB cut won't encourage them to make a big investment decision
The Chinese economy is slowing down
- Recent easing by Bejing including tariff exclusion list are designed to sooth to current pain
- China is on the path of decoupling from the US that will continue for the next 7-10 years
US economy further weakness through 2020-2021
- The US economy growth will slow down, and GDP goes down to below 2%
- Trade war and Tariff has shaken long term investor confidence that won't be repaired till 2021
Market will sell-off 10-20%
- The global market will break down from the current up and down loop to create a new low
- When risk premium goes down 20%, the road to recovery will begin slowly moving up in 2021
2020 will be the worst year in Stock market history
- The global market will realize and accept the Cold war between the US, and China is a new reality
- A new economic alliance will be forged between different economy blocks
Think Tanks already know
- We are entering a new era of economic uncertainty that will change the rule book for central banks and global investments
- The old elusion of unified global connected market will be replaced by regional interest
- Welcome to the new world!
