SPX EMA Buying Indication

15 мар. 2022 г.

SPX has seen 6 instances since 2003 where the 100 EMA has crossed below the 200 EMA.

With the majority of these identifying an optimal buy/entry point, with the strategy to look consider the depth of retracement and to scale into positions for optimal ROI once the market recovers.

The only major time where this was not close to the lowest retracement point was follwoing the housing market bubble which saw the 100 EMA remain below the 200 EMA for approx. 600 days with the optimal buy zone occurring 2/3 of the way through around 190 days before the 100 EMA crossed above.

#1. 20% Oct-Dec 2018, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days from mid-Dec 2018 to mid-Mar 2019

#2. -35% Feb to Mar 2020, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days late-Mar 2020 to mid-June

#3. -58% Oct 2007 to Mar 2009, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 600 days from Jan 2008 to Sep 2009. Lowest point was approx 190 days from 100 EMA crossing back above 200 EMA

Other periods to consider where 100 EMA crossed below 200 EMA:
Jan to Apr 2016
Sep to Nov 2015
Sep 2011 to Jan 2012

NOTE:
- THE CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT REFLECTS A DEEP RECESSION IS LIKELY BASED ON COMMODITIES AS WELL AS THE BREADTH OF ASSETS & EQUITIES WITH VALUATIONS AT OR NEAR ATH'S.
- Correction likely to be similar if not deeper than what was realized when the housing market collapsed in 2008 given the more widespread high prices driven by absurd amounts of excess money supply with rates at/near zero.