I am just thinking about the "March expiration day". For some players it might be very lucrative to play a little bit with the "greed" in the market.
Indicators: The current bull/bear ratio is above 3 and we are almost 12% above the EMA 200 (daily). PE ratio is almost back to 2018 highs. Cash reserve in the market is below 5%.
Beyond indicators: Demand shocks from coronavirus have not be priced in. Drop in Japan's GDP (recession) and in Europe we are probably facing a stagflation.
Limitations: Some big players have puts below the December 2019 low (around 3,100).
Hence it could make sense to sell off till 3,100 ("Kill the Bulls") but consolidate above the EMA 200 ("Kill the Bears"). Afterwards, we could see again a smooth rally until +3,500.
I know, the S&P is not a roller coaster. But a lot of money is on the table and too many people just bought call options in recent weeks with expiration date 20.03.2020.
So wait for the trigger (any event which justify a sell-off) and an accelerating in VIX with initial momentum/ & price action. Afterwards, just play the playbook.
No trigger, no trade… Take care!
Indicators: The current bull/bear ratio is above 3 and we are almost 12% above the EMA 200 (daily). PE ratio is almost back to 2018 highs. Cash reserve in the market is below 5%.
Beyond indicators: Demand shocks from coronavirus have not be priced in. Drop in Japan's GDP (recession) and in Europe we are probably facing a stagflation.
Limitations: Some big players have puts below the December 2019 low (around 3,100).
Hence it could make sense to sell off till 3,100 ("Kill the Bulls") but consolidate above the EMA 200 ("Kill the Bears"). Afterwards, we could see again a smooth rally until +3,500.
I know, the S&P is not a roller coaster. But a lot of money is on the table and too many people just bought call options in recent weeks with expiration date 20.03.2020.
So wait for the trigger (any event which justify a sell-off) and an accelerating in VIX with initial momentum/ & price action. Afterwards, just play the playbook.
No trigger, no trade… Take care!
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Time to take some profits (210; next 165 and final 100).
Комментарий:
I closed TP II around 178 (hence 13 points above), still 200 points :)
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Now I am opening tue first long positions. But still have Short positions in my portfolio. 3,165
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Closing the last shorts at 3,125. Now, before I buy any other longs I would like to see at least some support. This was really quick and dirty...
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Increased my long positions as planned around 3,100.
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I habe definetly closed my Short positions too early. My long trade was stopped out. I still waiting for the right Moment to move long again...