Volatility Inc.
If you haven't noticed already, at least.
So as i said in an update from my post last Thursday night the buy the dip crowd showed up on Friday. Only to be promptly put back in their place. We opened smack dab on the .382 fib and after a few 5 min candles of trying to go for the gap someone or something whacked them in the head. After making a run for support at $300 they brought the ball back and closed the hourly over the crucial support line at $302, and attempted, and failed to get through $305. We did take a stab at, and breached $300 only for the bulls to mount a rescue operation to not have the weekly close with a bearish engulfing. I refuse to think stuff like that is coincidence. Nonetheless if you're a day trader Friday was a field day for you if you have your support and resistance/fib extensions squared away. It was most likely an incredibly frustrating day for you if you're a trend follower or swing trader, especially if you're rules based with your stops and so on. With the vix trading in a 27% range your vega mixed with your delta was probably making you have a bad time.
While i was traveling Friday i was most focused on where we would close. Because as i mentioned above if we closed below SPX $3038.80 we would have had a bearish engulfing print on the weekly and that's a harbinger of bad news for the bulls. But, here's the kicker. The futures did. Looks like the bulls clocked out a little too early.
Chart time.
5m showing multiple tradable movements if you day trade. All of the support/resistance lines are from my intraday chart, and the lines that do not correspond with price on the margins are fib extensions from last week's high to Thursday's low. You did have one bear trap with the break of $300
Zoomed out to 1h. Notice the fight in and around the $300-$302 area
Here's a view from the 1h from my daily SPY chart. These support and resistance lines are from a daily+ TF perspective.
Daily trying to park us right on that $304 support
Note we did have a MACD bearish cross on the daily Friday as well
And the main event. The weekly. The weekly open was $303.62. The weekly close was $304.38. Rescue operation
SPX same deal
BUT. Oops. ES weekly. $3029.75 open, $3023.75 close
And notice where we just gapped down over... The Monthly trendline from the Mar 09 lows... That's big in my opinion
Respect the trendline. IWM doing just that.
Large confluence of support right here in this $135 area including the .5 fib, a gap, and trendline channel
But RTY is well outside of the channel. Target is the 50 period MA and also the downsloping trendline from the consolidation zone
Huge pivot candles on the weekly though
VIX having an almost 50% retracement in two days. Found support on the 100 period MA. Needs to break this restance level around 41-42 for it to continue on
Dow in a weird spot, just kind of levitating there between 100 and 200 MA's. I'd expect at least a test of the breakout area around
$24,550
NDX teetering on a breakout area, my guess is that we're headed for a test of the past breakout area of around $9330
So metals are still acting kind of funny with some correlation with postive and negative equitiy price movements. That's not a good sign. What i 'think' that tells me is that when people are selling, they're selling everything. Which is either two things. Fear, or illiquidity. Meaning they have to close metals positions to either fund other long positions or to just go all cash, pulling out of everything. It could also mean the margin requirements are not tenable either with large volatile price swings in equities. Just a hunch.
It's most apparent in silver, with a break of the trendline last Friday. This could either get better, or worse. But when twe popped last March EVERYTHING sold off. It was a margin call/liquidation fiesta and metals positions were not spared. This could just be consolidation for a move higher though. Silver is also used in manufacturing, so a downbeat outlook on economic activity might be weighing on it as well. What do you think?
Gold also having some weird price movements also showing indecision though. My bet for gold would to be for a breakout of this flag consolidation zone to the upside
That's based on this. A multi year cup and handle pattern on gold futures. But i wouldn't be too early on this as that would be expensive. Wait for confirmation
Again watch the top of this range. If we break it, it's red alert, batten down the hatches. The shit is hitting the fan
I think it's safe to say we have a reversal, at least on the daily timeframes. If it weren't for the end of day rescue operation in the cash markets it would have printed a confirmed reversal on the weekly as well.
Here's what you need to watch - Obviously futures are down. But we're in the death throes of a bull market currently and weird shit is happening. It's an incredible time to be trading in my opinion and if you can have your wits about you and don't let emotion in the mix this could be hugely profitable. We're going to be volatile in both directions. The reality has finally "set in" that we're not going to have anywhere near a "V" shaped recovery (finally) and the buying support from big money has seemed to cease and desist (rug pull). We're not going to be in a demand zone until we break down into the $280-294 area. We've already tested $300 once and if futures don't retrace overnight (which we all know happens all the time, "buy the dip") we're going to gap down below $300. Now if for some reason we knife through or gap below $280 sometime this week i would expect even more demand/support/buyers but it seems like we've seen a pretty serious sentiment shift in the latter half of last week in just the way price action moved.
We still have gaps below at $295 ($294 being a prior heavy resistance zone, so could be decent support) and $286. Not to mention the gap at $248 and my ultimate target of $225. Your eyes should be on the $280 area and whether or not we hold it if we make it down that way. I don't feel like this is the start of the "second crash" but i do think this is where both buying and selling support from big money starts to evaporate and we most likely range until we get through q2 earnings.
Topside targets i'll touch on tomorrow if i see them as being relevant.
Hope everyone had a good weekend and happy trading this week. Remember to keep your head on a swivel and watch for fakeouts in either direction.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
If you haven't noticed already, at least.
So as i said in an update from my post last Thursday night the buy the dip crowd showed up on Friday. Only to be promptly put back in their place. We opened smack dab on the .382 fib and after a few 5 min candles of trying to go for the gap someone or something whacked them in the head. After making a run for support at $300 they brought the ball back and closed the hourly over the crucial support line at $302, and attempted, and failed to get through $305. We did take a stab at, and breached $300 only for the bulls to mount a rescue operation to not have the weekly close with a bearish engulfing. I refuse to think stuff like that is coincidence. Nonetheless if you're a day trader Friday was a field day for you if you have your support and resistance/fib extensions squared away. It was most likely an incredibly frustrating day for you if you're a trend follower or swing trader, especially if you're rules based with your stops and so on. With the vix trading in a 27% range your vega mixed with your delta was probably making you have a bad time.
While i was traveling Friday i was most focused on where we would close. Because as i mentioned above if we closed below SPX $3038.80 we would have had a bearish engulfing print on the weekly and that's a harbinger of bad news for the bulls. But, here's the kicker. The futures did. Looks like the bulls clocked out a little too early.
Chart time.
5m showing multiple tradable movements if you day trade. All of the support/resistance lines are from my intraday chart, and the lines that do not correspond with price on the margins are fib extensions from last week's high to Thursday's low. You did have one bear trap with the break of $300
Zoomed out to 1h. Notice the fight in and around the $300-$302 area
Here's a view from the 1h from my daily SPY chart. These support and resistance lines are from a daily+ TF perspective.
Daily trying to park us right on that $304 support
And the main event. The weekly. The weekly open was $303.62. The weekly close was $304.38. Rescue operation
SPX same deal
BUT. Oops. ES weekly. $3029.75 open, $3023.75 close
And notice where we just gapped down over... The Monthly trendline from the Mar 09 lows... That's big in my opinion
Respect the trendline. IWM doing just that.
Large confluence of support right here in this $135 area including the .5 fib, a gap, and trendline channel
But RTY is well outside of the channel. Target is the 50 period MA and also the downsloping trendline from the consolidation zone
Huge pivot candles on the weekly though
VIX having an almost 50% retracement in two days. Found support on the 100 period MA. Needs to break this restance level around 41-42 for it to continue on
Dow in a weird spot, just kind of levitating there between 100 and 200 MA's. I'd expect at least a test of the breakout area around
$24,550
NDX teetering on a breakout area, my guess is that we're headed for a test of the past breakout area of around $9330
So metals are still acting kind of funny with some correlation with postive and negative equitiy price movements. That's not a good sign. What i 'think' that tells me is that when people are selling, they're selling everything. Which is either two things. Fear, or illiquidity. Meaning they have to close metals positions to either fund other long positions or to just go all cash, pulling out of everything. It could also mean the margin requirements are not tenable either with large volatile price swings in equities. Just a hunch.
It's most apparent in silver, with a break of the trendline last Friday. This could either get better, or worse. But when twe popped last March EVERYTHING sold off. It was a margin call/liquidation fiesta and metals positions were not spared. This could just be consolidation for a move higher though. Silver is also used in manufacturing, so a downbeat outlook on economic activity might be weighing on it as well. What do you think?
Gold also having some weird price movements also showing indecision though. My bet for gold would to be for a breakout of this flag consolidation zone to the upside
That's based on this. A multi year cup and handle pattern on gold futures. But i wouldn't be too early on this as that would be expensive. Wait for confirmation
Again watch the top of this range. If we break it, it's red alert, batten down the hatches. The shit is hitting the fan
I think it's safe to say we have a reversal, at least on the daily timeframes. If it weren't for the end of day rescue operation in the cash markets it would have printed a confirmed reversal on the weekly as well.
Here's what you need to watch - Obviously futures are down. But we're in the death throes of a bull market currently and weird shit is happening. It's an incredible time to be trading in my opinion and if you can have your wits about you and don't let emotion in the mix this could be hugely profitable. We're going to be volatile in both directions. The reality has finally "set in" that we're not going to have anywhere near a "V" shaped recovery (finally) and the buying support from big money has seemed to cease and desist (rug pull). We're not going to be in a demand zone until we break down into the $280-294 area. We've already tested $300 once and if futures don't retrace overnight (which we all know happens all the time, "buy the dip") we're going to gap down below $300. Now if for some reason we knife through or gap below $280 sometime this week i would expect even more demand/support/buyers but it seems like we've seen a pretty serious sentiment shift in the latter half of last week in just the way price action moved.
We still have gaps below at $295 ($294 being a prior heavy resistance zone, so could be decent support) and $286. Not to mention the gap at $248 and my ultimate target of $225. Your eyes should be on the $280 area and whether or not we hold it if we make it down that way. I don't feel like this is the start of the "second crash" but i do think this is where both buying and selling support from big money starts to evaporate and we most likely range until we get through q2 earnings.
Topside targets i'll touch on tomorrow if i see them as being relevant.
Hope everyone had a good weekend and happy trading this week. Remember to keep your head on a swivel and watch for fakeouts in either direction.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
Комментарий:
Obviously we're going to gap down. It could go either way. We could see a rescue operation back above $300 or a test of $294. Or maybe even both. We're going to open in no man's land. Happy trading.
Комментарий:
Gap basically filled on a low volume pump. This is also the 5m 200 period MA. We'll see if it rejects or they keep going.
