Was trying to find some direction for the market in the coming weeks. I took a look through history to see if I could find a time when the SPX, VIX (volatility), and ADX (trend strength) all had similar values. The best match I could find was the beginning of June 2009. You will have to zoom in on the time frames to get a better view of the data.
I know, I know, this time is different. Anyways, take it for what it's worth (free analysis from some random guy on the internet :)
During the first week of June 2009,
There are clearly parallels that can be drawn to today. The fact it is almost June I assume is just a coincidence, I doubt it is an omen ;)
Obviously, the Fed was not as aggressive back in 2009 and things are different in many ways. Maybe we will rally for 2 months without a pullback, but I doubt it. Pullbacks are a natural part of the market cycle. The question is not if but when and how much. We could easily climb up for a few more weeks before we see a pullback to a level that we see today. Hopefully it will become clearer soon. Be ready to pounce one way or the other. Hoped this helped and happy trading.
I know, I know, this time is different. Anyways, take it for what it's worth (free analysis from some random guy on the internet :)
During the first week of June 2009,
- S&P had a breakout of 9 days with several new highs without pullback.
- During that time the VIX held relatively flat and
- the ADX sunk to a low of 14.38.
There are clearly parallels that can be drawn to today. The fact it is almost June I assume is just a coincidence, I doubt it is an omen ;)
- Today we have had about 5 days of new highs with out a significant pull back.
- The VIX has been flat for the last several days of new highs and
- the ADX has reached a low of 15.4.
Obviously, the Fed was not as aggressive back in 2009 and things are different in many ways. Maybe we will rally for 2 months without a pullback, but I doubt it. Pullbacks are a natural part of the market cycle. The question is not if but when and how much. We could easily climb up for a few more weeks before we see a pullback to a level that we see today. Hopefully it will become clearer soon. Be ready to pounce one way or the other. Hoped this helped and happy trading.
Also, I am not sure how to factor in escalating tensions in Hong Kong and deteriorating U.S.-China relations. Last time that happened, the market dropped substantially (Dec 2018).