So we did end up gapping above and into the symmetrical triangle and testing the intermediate term trend line for majority of the day after grinding through it on a low volume/algo pump. It's almost as if everyone had to go collect their thoughts and lick their wounds after the past couple days. But after grinding higher most the day on half avg volume we had an interesting reversal in the last 15 minutes of trading that gave us a bearish engulfing on the hourly that landed smack dab on the trend line. That candle was also 2x the avg vol. Could have been everyone GTFO so they don't have to hold overnight.
Also notice how we were radio silent on the trade front news wise besides Bloomberg's annonymous source this morning (5 AM EST) that said something that we already knew? (China's willing to do a watered down deal, buy ag products, shit like that. The manipulation is impressive sometimes.) And it's not like we had a shit ton of buyers today, it was just no one had any conviction on whether to buy or sell or are already positioned. Although it was a nice little short squeeze. What also kills me is we've seen this movie before - if we do end up getting a "trade truce" and "skinny deal" or a partial deal all it'd be is a replay of the G7 meeting in Japan and literally nothing gets done. But, the markets would use it as an excuse to rally and $310/$3100 here we come.
I can see two different scenarios playing out overnight.
Scenario 1. We stay bullish overnight barring any bearish catalysts and resume our low volume pumpage back to the $294 level until whispers about the meeting start coming to light. There is a downtrend line coming from the original break down candle (top of the symmetrical triangle) but i'm assuming people would want to go for the fat round number of $294. $2950 on ES.
Scenario 2. Some institutional traders or Trump's team or whomever frontran us and that actually is a reversal candle and we gap down and head back to revisit $288 which i would not expect to hold a third time. This could also just be one big ass bear flag that just printed as well.
But, at this point your guess is as good as mine. Let me know where you guys stand.
Goodluck.
Also notice how we were radio silent on the trade front news wise besides Bloomberg's annonymous source this morning (5 AM EST) that said something that we already knew? (China's willing to do a watered down deal, buy ag products, shit like that. The manipulation is impressive sometimes.) And it's not like we had a shit ton of buyers today, it was just no one had any conviction on whether to buy or sell or are already positioned. Although it was a nice little short squeeze. What also kills me is we've seen this movie before - if we do end up getting a "trade truce" and "skinny deal" or a partial deal all it'd be is a replay of the G7 meeting in Japan and literally nothing gets done. But, the markets would use it as an excuse to rally and $310/$3100 here we come.
I can see two different scenarios playing out overnight.
Scenario 1. We stay bullish overnight barring any bearish catalysts and resume our low volume pumpage back to the $294 level until whispers about the meeting start coming to light. There is a downtrend line coming from the original break down candle (top of the symmetrical triangle) but i'm assuming people would want to go for the fat round number of $294. $2950 on ES.
Scenario 2. Some institutional traders or Trump's team or whomever frontran us and that actually is a reversal candle and we gap down and head back to revisit $288 which i would not expect to hold a third time. This could also just be one big ass bear flag that just printed as well.
But, at this point your guess is as good as mine. Let me know where you guys stand.
Goodluck.
Комментарий:
Looks like we got front run haha
