2-3% selloff incoming? Down to $651-655? Then BTD to $700+

3 дня назад

We've finally hit my target of $672 and while I still think we'll get downside after hitting this target, I don't think the sell will be as dramatic (yet).

I know everyone got bulled up after the price action today, but I think it's wise to be cautious here. Both the chart and the flows are telling me that we're likely to see a bearish move before we see more upside in markets.

I'm not looking for anything crazy, but I think 2-3% down to that $651-655 level is likely.

Then I think that will be a dip buying opportunity and that it's likely that many stocks (including SPY) can see new highs.

I've marked off new resistance levels should this idea play out.

Losing the support levels on the chart would be a caution for lower prices.

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If I'm honest, the charts are looking a lot more bullish right now than they were yesterday. Either we get the pullback today, or we go higher.

I don't really see a window for the pullback to happen after today.

So if we go up today, I'll add more long exposure and exit puts. We'll revisit the bear case in a couple of weeks.

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Okay charts looking more bearish now. Let's see if we get the move. Looks like the pump was just a pre-market fake out.

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Bought some $694C for 10/24 instead.

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Welp spoke too soon, seems like it's playing out. Going to keep those calls, bc expecting a big bounce after. Luckily protected by my UVXY calls.

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OUt of half of my UVXY, think we see one more leg sitll until the final target.

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Okay I'm out fully, don't know if we get the last leg now. Scaling into longs. Possible it comes on Monday tho.

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I added a ton to my $694C for 10/24 at .07. Not sure if it hits (super risky), but expecting a final blow off move. Sounds crazy right now, but will be a huge winner if it's correct.