Futures Trade Sideways, FED in Focus

13 янв. 2021 г.

It's impeachment day 2.0! US futures continue to drift sideways as Vix and the dollar hold on to a 23, and 90 handle respectively. CPI came in at 0.4%, with Core CPI rising 0.1%. Investors will be on the look out for the FED's Beige Book at 2PM, which should give an indication on future monetary policy, and may even firm up some rumours of future rate hikes off the back of rising yields. YCC could be in focus as the 10Y yield rips higher, however, we did see a strong auction yesterday with $38 Billion in demand, which sent the yield back toward the 1.11% level.

We'll be watching the 30Y bond auction today for indications of long dated bond demand, which could also have an immediate impact on rates. With the US potentially planning on going even deeper in debt with the incoming Biden Administration, supply is also in focus, as increased auction frequency and size, could also drive yields higher. Gold continues to show weakness, but is nearing overbought levels, like most all assets on the planet, with a monthly RSI of 64. Bitcoin and the crypto space bounced back notably from the weekly low, but Bitcoin caught some resistance around 36k. We're now sitting around 35k.

The US House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump, again, with the "debate" set to begin shortly, and voting to be wrapped up by 5PM this afternoon. It would then need to go to the senate for approval. SPY is trading in a relatively tight range, between 378 and 380. Barring a breach of the upper band of the white channel, we're going to continue to trade sideways. If we see a break above 380 again, the bulls may use the momentum to take us back to the ascending trendline in green, which is now sitting around 383.50. Trade accordingly.

Thanks for you time today guys, if you're interested in our live daily play-by-play, please join us over at the Hedge of the World website. You can find the link on my profile. Cheers, Michael.