SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTДлинная
Bears, if you're reading this it's too late
Обновлено
We are in a highly volatile, increasingly risky environment with overwhelming bearish sentiment.
- What the news has to say: "no hope, inflation, recession, bear market, war, fire, brimstone, kim kardashian tho, inflation, recession, etc..." (I can paraphrase: FUD)
- What the math has to say: Most likely path over the next few weeks is an explosive run to 430s to complete X2 of a triple combo, followed by one more leg down to around 348 to complete Z - and thus, complete corrective wave IV. After that we will see a new All time high in wave V in late 2022/early 2023.
...This is nothing new, a lot of ideas are circulating on tradingview by those that know Elliot Wave very well - and until I get confirmation otherwise I have to agree that is the most likely case. This post, however, is meant to accomplish 2 goals:
1) Emphasize/make everyone aware that we are set up to see some very explosive upside over the next few weeks, starting Tuesday July 5th. I'm not talking about the usual pop and drop everyone has been conditioned to expect these last 6 months. Rather, at least +50 points of squeeze-the-FUD upside is about to unfold and be realized by the end of July/early August. I have reason to believe, based on the math, that the big money has been carefully setting the stage for this run. The objective is to test their horns... see if they can leverage this negative environment to mark this up and invoke chaos - which they'll use to their advantage to test carryover demand and confirm the overhanging supply has been absorbed as my chart suggests.
2) Present an alt. path to new highs in August 2022. I'm talking MOASS. Without going into detail on the math here, I must admit the setup is both sophisticated and familiar - evidence to the trained eye that bears might be in some serious trouble. Talk is cheap though, I said everything I want to say in the chart, now here is my prediction... I suggest you mark this post in case what I'm indicating does indeed play out, you'll want to know the timeline, roadmap, and time frames to look for:
- We will gap up above 384.11 Tuesday morning, 7/5. We won't look back.
- We will continue to fill the gap from 396-401, and end next week (7/8) above 404
- We will then have until July 12th to make it over 424.12 for the alt. path to remain on the table... There is something that occurs above 424 (given it is hit by 7/12) that will trigger explosiveness to break above the blue trendline across the higher high we ran into early June? What is that something? It has to do with the determinant of a linear system composed of retracement and extension pairs shifting orientation in space (within the temporal constraints defined by implicit and explicit supply/demand equilibrium points... if you figure it out then you're welcome, you've tasted the forbidden fruit). From here I'll give the conditional expectations:
~ If we clear 424 by 7/12 the next stop will be 463.69 by July 25th, followed by a test of the blue trendline for support, and then if we make above 463-468 by July 25th we will see something that I'd expect to go down in history as the Mother Of Really Even All Squeezed Shorts... Led by GME (no cap)... and resulting in a new All time High sometime in August 2022. If this occurs I expect consolidation at 505, 524, and then the beginning of the true distribution phase around 536 where wave V should complete before we enter the real recession, the real bear market, the real long winter.
~~ If we get rejected at or before 424 and it fails to breach it by 7/12, then we will still likely make one more leg up to the 430s where they will distribute at a much smaller scale before throwing in the towel (for now) and preparing for a Z wave down to around 348.. from there they will devise a successful accumulation scheme to end this wave IV once and for all in September - November 2022. *Note: they already failed once back in March, they failed because it couldn't breach the critical level (at the time) of 468, and then it failed to hold 458, so they had to scramble and distribute down that disgusting Y wave until the overhanging supply was completely absorbed (that intersection of the light purple and light blue trendlines formed back in September/October of 2021 is what I'm referring too - that intersection of the 2 at the end of last week is what I'm seeing as confirmation its been dealt with. Assume they condition their algos to adapt like they condition retail to buy dips and sell pops at the perfectly worse time - an operant response.
If you can figure out whats going on in the busy regions then great for you. If not, don't worry, you can FOMO soon like everyone else with or without eyes. Love you too.
Heed,
XOX Guardian <case 444>
yP.S. we are from the dimension that exists in Your future, translated in Our past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Your present... or did
- What the news has to say: "no hope, inflation, recession, bear market, war, fire, brimstone, kim kardashian tho, inflation, recession, etc..." (I can paraphrase: FUD)
- What the math has to say: Most likely path over the next few weeks is an explosive run to 430s to complete X2 of a triple combo, followed by one more leg down to around 348 to complete Z - and thus, complete corrective wave IV. After that we will see a new All time high in wave V in late 2022/early 2023.
...This is nothing new, a lot of ideas are circulating on tradingview by those that know Elliot Wave very well - and until I get confirmation otherwise I have to agree that is the most likely case. This post, however, is meant to accomplish 2 goals:
1) Emphasize/make everyone aware that we are set up to see some very explosive upside over the next few weeks, starting Tuesday July 5th. I'm not talking about the usual pop and drop everyone has been conditioned to expect these last 6 months. Rather, at least +50 points of squeeze-the-FUD upside is about to unfold and be realized by the end of July/early August. I have reason to believe, based on the math, that the big money has been carefully setting the stage for this run. The objective is to test their horns... see if they can leverage this negative environment to mark this up and invoke chaos - which they'll use to their advantage to test carryover demand and confirm the overhanging supply has been absorbed as my chart suggests.
2) Present an alt. path to new highs in August 2022. I'm talking MOASS. Without going into detail on the math here, I must admit the setup is both sophisticated and familiar - evidence to the trained eye that bears might be in some serious trouble. Talk is cheap though, I said everything I want to say in the chart, now here is my prediction... I suggest you mark this post in case what I'm indicating does indeed play out, you'll want to know the timeline, roadmap, and time frames to look for:
- We will gap up above 384.11 Tuesday morning, 7/5. We won't look back.
- We will continue to fill the gap from 396-401, and end next week (7/8) above 404
- We will then have until July 12th to make it over 424.12 for the alt. path to remain on the table... There is something that occurs above 424 (given it is hit by 7/12) that will trigger explosiveness to break above the blue trendline across the higher high we ran into early June? What is that something? It has to do with the determinant of a linear system composed of retracement and extension pairs shifting orientation in space (within the temporal constraints defined by implicit and explicit supply/demand equilibrium points... if you figure it out then you're welcome, you've tasted the forbidden fruit). From here I'll give the conditional expectations:
~ If we clear 424 by 7/12 the next stop will be 463.69 by July 25th, followed by a test of the blue trendline for support, and then if we make above 463-468 by July 25th we will see something that I'd expect to go down in history as the Mother Of Really Even All Squeezed Shorts... Led by GME (no cap)... and resulting in a new All time High sometime in August 2022. If this occurs I expect consolidation at 505, 524, and then the beginning of the true distribution phase around 536 where wave V should complete before we enter the real recession, the real bear market, the real long winter.
~~ If we get rejected at or before 424 and it fails to breach it by 7/12, then we will still likely make one more leg up to the 430s where they will distribute at a much smaller scale before throwing in the towel (for now) and preparing for a Z wave down to around 348.. from there they will devise a successful accumulation scheme to end this wave IV once and for all in September - November 2022. *Note: they already failed once back in March, they failed because it couldn't breach the critical level (at the time) of 468, and then it failed to hold 458, so they had to scramble and distribute down that disgusting Y wave until the overhanging supply was completely absorbed (that intersection of the light purple and light blue trendlines formed back in September/October of 2021 is what I'm referring too - that intersection of the 2 at the end of last week is what I'm seeing as confirmation its been dealt with. Assume they condition their algos to adapt like they condition retail to buy dips and sell pops at the perfectly worse time - an operant response.
If you can figure out whats going on in the busy regions then great for you. If not, don't worry, you can FOMO soon like everyone else with or without eyes. Love you too.
Heed,
XOX Guardian <case 444>
yP.S. we are from the dimension that exists in Your future, translated in Our past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Your present... or did
Заметка
BTCUSD and ETHUSD just activated Markup. The expected crypto run from here will act as a catalyst for index ETFs and equities over the next few weeks. Here is a summary of what I'm expecting for SPY in case you just want the numbers/dates and not the explanation in my post: - target 424 by July 12th
- target 463 by July 25th
- if it can break 463-468 by then it can run to 481 by Aug. 4th-Aug 29th
- window of opportunity closes 9/1 and it doesn’t make it above 463-468 by then it will begin downside to make a new low (around 348) by October-November
Заметка
SPX500USD activates markup at 3863.20. Whether or not this occurs before the bell tomorrow will determine if SPY gaps up or not. If it doesn't gap 384.11 it will likely hit during the trading day tomo to set this in motion.Заметка
We are at the 384 activation level to kick this baby off. Lets see if it can leverage the FED-related volatility to break above this. If it does I'm expecting low 390s next stop. You can tell something is trying to prevent it crossing 384, likely because above they'll have to cover. Oops bears, oops.Заметка
Lift job.Заметка
Slingshot ^Заметка
If you don't add here we have nothing in common.Заметка
Held 384.11, that's the signal.Заметка
Futures have the volatility and setup to see record green today. Record green... doesn't mean it will 100% happen, but the capacity is there. Most similar historic days to where we are currently were 3/24/2020 and 3/16/2022. Today's target range for S&P is 3949.3 - 4036.1, or could be a 2 day move through tomorrow.
Заметка
Bears if you're reading this its too late.
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.