I think implied volatility and price will remain stable over the next few weeks as we await the Fed's decision on rates at the July meeting. Personally, I think that rates remain unchanged, but the market thinks a cut will be announced. Google "countdown to FOMC CME" and you'll see what I mean.
Even if the Fed DOES cut rates, that is being implied by the market, i.e., IV will still drop in bonds and price may not change all that much. Because of this and prior mentioned factors, I think an Iron Butterfly is a good opportunity. It's also low risk, so does it really matter if it doesn't work? ;)
Even if the Fed DOES cut rates, that is being implied by the market, i.e., IV will still drop in bonds and price may not change all that much. Because of this and prior mentioned factors, I think an Iron Butterfly is a good opportunity. It's also low risk, so does it really matter if it doesn't work? ;)