Publishing this chart, I have been wrong on TLT for a while now. although I don't think my charting is completely inaccurate. So I welcome ideas and your opinions if you're willing to share.
I believe this is significant time and that we are at the convergence of both technicals and macro factors.
Technicals :
We are on the support line that was created by the two lows on mid-Dec 2016 and late Oct 2018. that Support line coincides with the the apex of the falling wedge that originated on March 15 2021 - the Statistics about WEdges aren't the best. Numbers show that they are not very reliable at indicationg a trend reversal (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Bulkowski).
While I am hopeful this would be part of a bottom formation and reversal, I am not super confident. If we break that 106.... there is lot of downside to come.
Macro :
Wednesday will be the potential 100bps increase by the fed which would result in the sentiment that peak inflation seemingly behind us and the possible "official" announcement of recession seem to be the most important factor for a bounce in TLT.
Ok, so I would be bullish from here and will DCA a bit more this month.
Hope this helps.
I believe this is significant time and that we are at the convergence of both technicals and macro factors.
Technicals :
We are on the support line that was created by the two lows on mid-Dec 2016 and late Oct 2018. that Support line coincides with the the apex of the falling wedge that originated on March 15 2021 - the Statistics about WEdges aren't the best. Numbers show that they are not very reliable at indicationg a trend reversal (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Bulkowski).
While I am hopeful this would be part of a bottom formation and reversal, I am not super confident. If we break that 106.... there is lot of downside to come.
Macro :
Wednesday will be the potential 100bps increase by the fed which would result in the sentiment that peak inflation seemingly behind us and the possible "official" announcement of recession seem to be the most important factor for a bounce in TLT.
Ok, so I would be bullish from here and will DCA a bit more this month.
Hope this helps.