US 10Y TREASURY: inflation means less rate cuts

14 апр.

Jobs data were the ones that moved the markets two weeks ago, while the previous week was marked with inflation data. The US inflation is quite persistent and moved higher to 3.5% in March, from 3.4% that the market was expecting. The overall market sentiment is that the Fed will stay reluctant to decrease interest rates during the course of this year, since the inflation is slowly moving far away from targeted 2%. However, not all on the market are of this opinion. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, made a comment of his expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at least two times till the end of this year, however, the estimated 2% will be missed. In other words, he expects that the Fed will drop the idea of a 2% target, and accept its higher levels. What will be the final Fed's decision, markets will know in May this year, since the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the first week of May.

During the previous week market priced current expectations and moved 10Y Treasury yields to the much higher grounds, from previously expected and traded. At one moment yields reached the level of 4.59%, however, they ended the week at 4.52%. Since the market priced currently known information, it could be expected that yields will calm down a bit in the week ahead. However, there should not be expected some significant drop in yields, at least until the next FOMC meeting.