US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyond

18 июн. 2019 г.

Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;)

This is an update to my previous idea:

If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines.

If you're not. Here's a super simple version.

.618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher.

However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible.

So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now...

But that's probably not going to happen this time.

Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way.

The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020).

A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc.

Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit.

And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.

19 июн. 2019 г.

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With the Fed's uber dovish remarks at today's FOMC press briefing and the "odds" of a July rate hike hitting 100%, I'm pretty confident we're on our way to test the all time lows.

Next 4-6 months maybe?

4 июл. 2019 г.

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Right on target

6 авг. 2019 г.

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Monthly view.

6 авг. 2019 г.

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3 day view

6 авг. 2019 г.

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100% chance in my view that the yield we see a testing of the all time low (1.32) and it's likely to happen by the next FOMC when they cut rates by .25 to .50%

But the yield could test 1.32 even before FOMC, now that China has been designated a currency manipulator and the USD/Yuan has breached the 7 threshold.