10YR could be over 2% by 4Q21

22 мар. 2021 г.

Economy is recovering quickly. 10YR is expected to hit 2% sometime this year, I suspect it to occur near the end of the 3rd quarter; so the end of summer. Not only will everyone be vaccinated backed by warm weather, low infection/death rates, and reopenings in full-force, we will have less unemployment and a stronger economy leading to higher yields. This could lead to a panic-sell off in risk assets/low-yielding assets.

This year is expected to be choppy and this should cause a whole lot of chop as portfolio rebalancing into fixed income picks up.