DJIA: Breakout on DOW after expanding wedge completed?
I was previously counting the possible expanding wedge as depicted in circled red (see previous idea linked below), thus looking for a bounce at the red 4 followed by 5 waves up to complete the red 5 around the all-time high.
Now it looks like I may have counted wrong and the wedge completed at the blue circled 5. Not 100% sure yet but we have made a lower low in the current downtrend (also on MACD) and broke the up trendline of the wedge AND the current downtrend seems to be developing as a 5-wave structure so it could be the case..., we'll see... All this is in line with a possible leading diagonal, or at least the 5-3-5-3-5 structure of the diagonal suggests that it could be a leading diagonal (wave 1) rather than an ending diagonal (wave 5)...
In case it is we are looking at the start of a dowtrend towards the 38.2 (17148) - 50.0 (16834) - 61.8 (16519) retracement levels to complete a wave 2 (midterm, not shown here, zoom out)... After which we could be looking for the start of a longterm bullish uptrend (wave 3...). Now I haven't looked at the very longterm (quarterly-yearly) but on this TF it is what I think is most probable... All this is theory of course, we'll just have to wait and see as always...
Shorter term we could see some retracement upwards at the levels depicted on the chart where fib ext. levels coiincide with possible S/R zones and/or trendlines, 17482 and 17396 are good levels to look for longs and/or get back with the trend after that correction ends...
In case we go back up from here and form a higher high above the red rectangle we could still complete the EED at red circled 5... (less likely now imo)
Now it looks like I may have counted wrong and the wedge completed at the blue circled 5. Not 100% sure yet but we have made a lower low in the current downtrend (also on MACD) and broke the up trendline of the wedge AND the current downtrend seems to be developing as a 5-wave structure so it could be the case..., we'll see... All this is in line with a possible leading diagonal, or at least the 5-3-5-3-5 structure of the diagonal suggests that it could be a leading diagonal (wave 1) rather than an ending diagonal (wave 5)...
In case it is we are looking at the start of a dowtrend towards the 38.2 (17148) - 50.0 (16834) - 61.8 (16519) retracement levels to complete a wave 2 (midterm, not shown here, zoom out)... After which we could be looking for the start of a longterm bullish uptrend (wave 3...). Now I haven't looked at the very longterm (quarterly-yearly) but on this TF it is what I think is most probable... All this is theory of course, we'll just have to wait and see as always...
Shorter term we could see some retracement upwards at the levels depicted on the chart where fib ext. levels coiincide with possible S/R zones and/or trendlines, 17482 and 17396 are good levels to look for longs and/or get back with the trend after that correction ends...
In case we go back up from here and form a higher high above the red rectangle we could still complete the EED at red circled 5... (less likely now imo)
