Mr. Dow – surfin’ down, but…
Hello everyone,
as predicted in my last analysis (long term), the dow has moved up – so far so good. But now, we want to know, how to trade the next movements (shorter term).
First of all, we are most likely in a complex corrective structure (wave 4, purple in brackets, as you can see in the chart of my last analysis; please check link below). Forth waves are mostly known as position shredders, because they are complex, often long lasting and extremely volatile. But there are chances on both sides to play them.
There are three possible scenarios in the chart - same procedure as every time.
Scenario 1 – green line, chance 60%
The actual downtrend looks not completed to me, so I expect a final sell-off down completing wave 5 (blue in brackets) of a (purple in square brackets). I am not sure how deep this wave will come down, but I think the region around my yellow box in the chart could make it. If the dow will follow this scenario, I will give an update with more precision.
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 30%
The fist movement will be the same as the green-line-scenario, but in detail it could be only a wave b (blue in brackets) down, because in this scenario wave a (purple in square brackets) is almost completed at 24.065. If so, we are already in wave b (purple in square brackets). If this scenario is pushing through, we maybe have a good chance to get in short at the end of wave b.
Scenario 3 – red lines, chance 10%
We have to face that there is a small chance, that the dow has completed the whole corrective pattern already, but this I could not imagine at the moment, to be honest.
The thing is: if scenario 1 or 2 is pushing through, the next movement will be down, the question then is, will it be strong or only weak! I will trade wave b up eventually, but wave c of 4 surely.
Take care,
tgo
as predicted in my last analysis (long term), the dow has moved up – so far so good. But now, we want to know, how to trade the next movements (shorter term).
First of all, we are most likely in a complex corrective structure (wave 4, purple in brackets, as you can see in the chart of my last analysis; please check link below). Forth waves are mostly known as position shredders, because they are complex, often long lasting and extremely volatile. But there are chances on both sides to play them.
There are three possible scenarios in the chart - same procedure as every time.
Scenario 1 – green line, chance 60%
The actual downtrend looks not completed to me, so I expect a final sell-off down completing wave 5 (blue in brackets) of a (purple in square brackets). I am not sure how deep this wave will come down, but I think the region around my yellow box in the chart could make it. If the dow will follow this scenario, I will give an update with more precision.
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 30%
The fist movement will be the same as the green-line-scenario, but in detail it could be only a wave b (blue in brackets) down, because in this scenario wave a (purple in square brackets) is almost completed at 24.065. If so, we are already in wave b (purple in square brackets). If this scenario is pushing through, we maybe have a good chance to get in short at the end of wave b.
Scenario 3 – red lines, chance 10%
We have to face that there is a small chance, that the dow has completed the whole corrective pattern already, but this I could not imagine at the moment, to be honest.
The thing is: if scenario 1 or 2 is pushing through, the next movement will be down, the question then is, will it be strong or only weak! I will trade wave b up eventually, but wave c of 4 surely.
Take care,
tgo
HK-Capital-Management
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