📐USDCAD: Long term triangle

3 июн. 2023 г.

●● Preferred count
● USD / Canadian Dollar, 🕐TF: 3M

Fig.1

Friends, hello! Finally got around to the weekly public update. As you already understood, today we will analyze the USDCAD currency pair.
The calculation of historical data presented in Fig. 1 has not changed: I still believe that a series of impulses waves and sideways corrections can be interpreted as part of the emerging long-term diagonal. The only thing that is very confusing in this markup is the significant discrepancy between the wave degree and the size of the "(B) of Ⓦ" and "Ⓧ of I" waves. As a norm, Ⓧ should be greater than (B) of Ⓦ, but in our example the picture is reversed. In the future, this problem can be solved by expanding the boundaries of the triangle Ⓧ of I.


Fig.2

The second option for marking long-term waves suggests considering a series of sideways corrections as fourth waves within the impulse. Thus, the historical top formed in 2002 is the finale of the impulse, presumably within the framework of the wave Ⓐ of I. All subsequent wave counts will be based on the first variant (Fig. 1). The idea marked in Fig.2 came literally today and still requires some reflection and elaboration on smaller time intervals.

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● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 4D

Fig.3

So, in the context of the wave count, which is currently considered as the main scenario, the sideways correction (B) of Ⓨ in the form of a triangle A-B-C-D-E is supposed to develop. Within the framework of the triangle, sub-wave A is a double zigzag, which means that all subsequent sub-waves must take the form of exclusively single zigzags ⓐ-ⓑ-ⓒ.
We should also remember that a double zigzag in wave "A" of a sideways correction can be not only within a triangle, but also within a flat.

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● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 1D

Fig.4

On the daily and smaller timeframes, we again encounter variability in wave counting. Now the sub-wave ⓑ of C can transform from a zigzag into a triangle, a flat or a combination.

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● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 8h

Fig.5
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●● Local alternative count
● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 4D

Fig.6

Well, now let's see what alternatives can be for a triangle and a flat, indicated in Fig.3. The first thing you should pay attention to is that wave (B) could be completed in the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y. This is the marking we had as the main scenario until a series of the first and second waves within (C) of Ⓨ did not bog down in the sideways, which is marked ⓧ of 1 in Fig.6.
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● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 1D

Fig.7

If the price exits the flat trend upwards (along the path of the red dotted line), then most likely priority will be given to this scenario.
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●● Alternative count
● USDCAD, 🕐TF: 4D

Fig.8

An alternative scenario, which involves expanding the boundaries of the triangle Ⓧ, we discussed in previous updates. Earlier the wave X of (C) was considered as a zigzag, now there are reasons to wait for the wave X in the form of a triangle. I did not succeed in solving the problem with counting the impulse A of (B) of Ⓧ, and for this reason, the implementation of markup, in my opinion, is less likely, as before.
As you can see, even applying a number of strong guidelines in your work, it is not always possible to minimize the number of possible ways for the development of the market structure. It remains only to wait for the manifestation of a readable form of the model in one position or another, compare it with the available wave counts options and adjust the trading plan as information becomes available.
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